Reilly
11-16-2005, 02:35 AM
Indianapolis (http://sports-att.espn.go.com/nfl/clubhouse?teamId=11) (9-0, 5-0 away) at Cincinnati (http://sports-att.espn.go.com/nfl/clubhouse?teamId=4) (7-2, 3-1 home)
Why To Watch
The Colts face one of their toughest remaining games in the pursuit of an undefeated season. No offense in the NFL is capable of stacking up with the Colts three-headed monster of QB Peyton Manning (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4256), WR Marvin Harrison (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=3514) and RB Edgerrin James (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4652), but Bengals QB Carson Palmer (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6337), WR Chad Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5483) and RB Rudi Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5548) are at least formidable competition.
The Bengals do have the advantage of playing at home, but that did not bode so well in their last big test versus the Steelers at Paul Brown Stadium. If Cincinnati is to pull off the home upset, its defense must tighten up versus the run and avoid giving up the big play to WRs Harrison, Reggie Wayne (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5477) and Brandon Stokley (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4755). Turnovers, time of possession and special teams are also facets of the game that coach Marvin Lewis must stress heading into what could be a playoff preview between two of the AFC's four divisional leaders.
http://espn.starwave.com/nfl/gamepackage/i/helmets/ind_34_rf.jpgWhen the Colts have the ball
Rushing: This sets up as a game that the Colts' offense will come out looking to run against a Bengals' defense that ranks 24th in the NFL versus the run. A lack of size at the defensive tackle position, combined with inexperience at linebacker, have proven to be a fatal combination for the Cincinnati run defense.
Robinson and Thornton will do a good job of penetrating and disrupting when fresh, but they lack the base and strength to consistently anchor when teams run at them. Marginal depth at the defensive tackle position has also led to Robinson and Thornton wearing down too frequently. Thurman and Pollack show a great deal of promise, but neither is consistent enough at this point. Thurman is too slow reading his keys at times and takes too many false steps versus the run.
Pollack, on the other hand, shows good natural instincts, but is still struggling to make the adjustment from college DE to NFL SLB. A two-game layoff because of a sprained left knee has not helped. The Colts do not possess great size or overpowering run blockers along their offensive line, but the unit as a whole is extremely efficient. If OGs Ryan Lilja (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=7076) and Jake Scott (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6900) win their one-on-one battles versus Robinson and Thornton, and if OC Jeff Saturday (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4953) does a solid job of sealing off Thurman on the second-level, RB James should finish with 120-plus rushing yards on 20-plus carries.
Passing: If the Colts are able to establish as strong of a rushing attack as we expect, it will put a great deal of pressure on the Bengals' defensive secondary. DSs Ifeanyi Ohalete (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5741) and Kevin Kaesviharn (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5831) have the unenviable task of being aggressive in run support, but not selling out versus Manning's play-action fake, which is awfully easy to do.
Kaesviharn, a former cornerback, has good instincts and adequate range down the middle, but his lack of ideal speed and fluid hips will be tested when the Colts flood his zone with deep-crossing routes and post-corner types of routes. Ohalete, on the other hand, has a tendency to be over-aggressive versus the run and will be a target for TE Dallas Clark (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6360) to exploit in the play-action passing game.
The real problems for the Bengals, however, exist on the perimeter. DC Deltha O'Neal has six interceptions already this season and is playing with far better control than in seasons past. He seems to have improved technique and recognition skills, which is allowing him to maximize his speed and athletic ability. But no matter how well O'Neal has played to this point, the Bengals cannot afford to leave him alone on an island versus Harrison with any type of frequency. If so, Harrison has the savvy, initial burst and explosive cutting ability to consistently separate from O'Neal and send the erratic cover corner back into a mental funk in a hurry.
As such, the Bengals will be forced to roll coverages to Harrison's side most of the afternoon, which will create a lot of pasture on the opposite side for WRs Wayne and Brandon Stokley (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4755) to work "high-low" route combinations versus DCs Tory James (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=3603) and Keiwan Ratliff (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6808). James will do a good job of protecting himself deep, so look for Wayne to have a high reception count. Conversely, Ratliff has the speed and athletic ability to keep up with Stokley one-on-one, but look for the savvy veteran receiver to freeze Ratliff with a double-move or come off a fake-block in the play-action series to provide one or two big plays vertically.
http://espn.starwave.com/nfl/gamepackage/i/helmets/cin_34_rf.jpgWhen the Bengals have the ball
Rushing: The Bengals are a team that prefers to pass to set up the run. They do a good job of spreading opponents out with multiple receiver sets, which typically creates favorable six-man fronts and smaller personnel packages to run against. The Bengals typically average fewer than 30 carries per game, but it wouldn't be surprising to see offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski balance things out more versus the Colts this week.
The Bengals know that in order to keep up in what promises to be a shootout they must remain aggressive. But they also know that a stronger commitment to the run will help to neutralize the Colts ferocious pass rush, while also limiting the opportunities for Manning and the Colts' offense.
The Colts defensive front is bigger and more physical than it has been in seasons past, especially down the middle with the additions of DT Corey Simon (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5035), MLB Gary Brackett (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6632) and FS Bob Sanders (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6803), who actually is questionable this week due to a knee injury he suffered in the first half of last week's win over Houston. However, the unit is still far better when playing with the lead, because it is able to simply pin its ears back and go after the quarterback.
To that end, the Bengals need to exploit their massive size advantage upfront by keeping their offense grounded with more north-south runs than usual. OGs Bobbie Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5090) and Eric Steinbach (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6369) have the size and technique to handle DTs Simon and Montae Reagor (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4708) one-on-one, and OTs Levi Jones (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5896) and Willie Anderson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=3544) match up far better in the phone booth as run blockers than they do on islands in pass protection versus DEs Dwight Freeney (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5897) and Raheem Brock (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6096). Rudi Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5548) handles almost all of the carries for the Bengals' offense and has had 22 or more carries in the team's last two outings. Because of his size and powerful running style, the Bengals should look to get Johnson 25-plus carries in this game.
Passing: Protecting Palmer is the biggest key for the Bengals offense in this game. The Colts do not send many linebackers or defensive backs on the blitz, because they simply do not need to with the front four pass rush production they typically receive. That means the five-man line of the Bengals will need to handle the four-man rush of the Colts, which sounds a lot easier than it is in actuality.
Steinbach will be able to hold up one-on-one versus Reagor, but the rest of the line will need frequent double team help in their matchups -- especially when Robert Mathis (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6474) comes in at LDE and Brock moves inside to DT on obvious passing downs. Jones has developed into a solid all-around starter at left tackle for the Bengals, but even he will need consistent help versus Freeney off the edge. As a result, do not be surprised to see a lot of max-protection blocking schemes with the Bengals keeping TE Reggie Kelly (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4691) and/or Rudi Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5548) in as extra help.
If the Bengals can creatively find ways to buy Palmer the time he needs as a pocket passer, Palmer has the weapons and the proven ability to pick apart a Colts' secondary that is a bit more vulnerable right now than it was earlier in the season. For starters, Sanders might not be able to play because of the aforementioned knee injury, and even if he does play, his range in coverage is likely to be affected.
SS Mike Doss is a big hitter with adequate short-to-intermediate zone coverage skills, but will struggle if forced to make up more ground for a hobbled Sanders or a less reliable Joseph Jefferson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5960). Making matters worse, RDC Jason David (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6884) has struggled recently in terms of his recognition skills and decision making. David lacks ideal man-to-man cover skills and his indecisiveness has hurt him in zone coverage lately.
The Colts are getting solid play out of LDC Nick Harper (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5790) and nickel DC Marlin Jackson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=7205), but Harper is limited in terms of his speed and athletic ability, and Jackson is still capable of a mental breakdown as a rookie. With that in mind, look for the Bengals to spread the field with their usual three-receiver package of Chad Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5483), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5652) and emergin rookie Chris Henry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=7259) as much as possible, in order to put the pressure on the Colts' secondary.
Because of David's struggles, the Colts will have to roll coverages and maintain a cover-2 look throughout most of this game, in order to help him in his matchup versus Johnson. In doing so, there should be a lot of room that opens up for Houshmandzadeh and Henry to work on the opposite side.
Why To Watch
The Colts face one of their toughest remaining games in the pursuit of an undefeated season. No offense in the NFL is capable of stacking up with the Colts three-headed monster of QB Peyton Manning (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4256), WR Marvin Harrison (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=3514) and RB Edgerrin James (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4652), but Bengals QB Carson Palmer (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6337), WR Chad Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5483) and RB Rudi Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5548) are at least formidable competition.
The Bengals do have the advantage of playing at home, but that did not bode so well in their last big test versus the Steelers at Paul Brown Stadium. If Cincinnati is to pull off the home upset, its defense must tighten up versus the run and avoid giving up the big play to WRs Harrison, Reggie Wayne (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5477) and Brandon Stokley (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4755). Turnovers, time of possession and special teams are also facets of the game that coach Marvin Lewis must stress heading into what could be a playoff preview between two of the AFC's four divisional leaders.
http://espn.starwave.com/nfl/gamepackage/i/helmets/ind_34_rf.jpgWhen the Colts have the ball
Rushing: This sets up as a game that the Colts' offense will come out looking to run against a Bengals' defense that ranks 24th in the NFL versus the run. A lack of size at the defensive tackle position, combined with inexperience at linebacker, have proven to be a fatal combination for the Cincinnati run defense.
Robinson and Thornton will do a good job of penetrating and disrupting when fresh, but they lack the base and strength to consistently anchor when teams run at them. Marginal depth at the defensive tackle position has also led to Robinson and Thornton wearing down too frequently. Thurman and Pollack show a great deal of promise, but neither is consistent enough at this point. Thurman is too slow reading his keys at times and takes too many false steps versus the run.
Pollack, on the other hand, shows good natural instincts, but is still struggling to make the adjustment from college DE to NFL SLB. A two-game layoff because of a sprained left knee has not helped. The Colts do not possess great size or overpowering run blockers along their offensive line, but the unit as a whole is extremely efficient. If OGs Ryan Lilja (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=7076) and Jake Scott (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6900) win their one-on-one battles versus Robinson and Thornton, and if OC Jeff Saturday (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4953) does a solid job of sealing off Thurman on the second-level, RB James should finish with 120-plus rushing yards on 20-plus carries.
Passing: If the Colts are able to establish as strong of a rushing attack as we expect, it will put a great deal of pressure on the Bengals' defensive secondary. DSs Ifeanyi Ohalete (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5741) and Kevin Kaesviharn (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5831) have the unenviable task of being aggressive in run support, but not selling out versus Manning's play-action fake, which is awfully easy to do.
Kaesviharn, a former cornerback, has good instincts and adequate range down the middle, but his lack of ideal speed and fluid hips will be tested when the Colts flood his zone with deep-crossing routes and post-corner types of routes. Ohalete, on the other hand, has a tendency to be over-aggressive versus the run and will be a target for TE Dallas Clark (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6360) to exploit in the play-action passing game.
The real problems for the Bengals, however, exist on the perimeter. DC Deltha O'Neal has six interceptions already this season and is playing with far better control than in seasons past. He seems to have improved technique and recognition skills, which is allowing him to maximize his speed and athletic ability. But no matter how well O'Neal has played to this point, the Bengals cannot afford to leave him alone on an island versus Harrison with any type of frequency. If so, Harrison has the savvy, initial burst and explosive cutting ability to consistently separate from O'Neal and send the erratic cover corner back into a mental funk in a hurry.
As such, the Bengals will be forced to roll coverages to Harrison's side most of the afternoon, which will create a lot of pasture on the opposite side for WRs Wayne and Brandon Stokley (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4755) to work "high-low" route combinations versus DCs Tory James (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=3603) and Keiwan Ratliff (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6808). James will do a good job of protecting himself deep, so look for Wayne to have a high reception count. Conversely, Ratliff has the speed and athletic ability to keep up with Stokley one-on-one, but look for the savvy veteran receiver to freeze Ratliff with a double-move or come off a fake-block in the play-action series to provide one or two big plays vertically.
http://espn.starwave.com/nfl/gamepackage/i/helmets/cin_34_rf.jpgWhen the Bengals have the ball
Rushing: The Bengals are a team that prefers to pass to set up the run. They do a good job of spreading opponents out with multiple receiver sets, which typically creates favorable six-man fronts and smaller personnel packages to run against. The Bengals typically average fewer than 30 carries per game, but it wouldn't be surprising to see offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski balance things out more versus the Colts this week.
The Bengals know that in order to keep up in what promises to be a shootout they must remain aggressive. But they also know that a stronger commitment to the run will help to neutralize the Colts ferocious pass rush, while also limiting the opportunities for Manning and the Colts' offense.
The Colts defensive front is bigger and more physical than it has been in seasons past, especially down the middle with the additions of DT Corey Simon (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5035), MLB Gary Brackett (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6632) and FS Bob Sanders (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6803), who actually is questionable this week due to a knee injury he suffered in the first half of last week's win over Houston. However, the unit is still far better when playing with the lead, because it is able to simply pin its ears back and go after the quarterback.
To that end, the Bengals need to exploit their massive size advantage upfront by keeping their offense grounded with more north-south runs than usual. OGs Bobbie Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5090) and Eric Steinbach (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6369) have the size and technique to handle DTs Simon and Montae Reagor (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4708) one-on-one, and OTs Levi Jones (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5896) and Willie Anderson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=3544) match up far better in the phone booth as run blockers than they do on islands in pass protection versus DEs Dwight Freeney (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5897) and Raheem Brock (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6096). Rudi Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5548) handles almost all of the carries for the Bengals' offense and has had 22 or more carries in the team's last two outings. Because of his size and powerful running style, the Bengals should look to get Johnson 25-plus carries in this game.
Passing: Protecting Palmer is the biggest key for the Bengals offense in this game. The Colts do not send many linebackers or defensive backs on the blitz, because they simply do not need to with the front four pass rush production they typically receive. That means the five-man line of the Bengals will need to handle the four-man rush of the Colts, which sounds a lot easier than it is in actuality.
Steinbach will be able to hold up one-on-one versus Reagor, but the rest of the line will need frequent double team help in their matchups -- especially when Robert Mathis (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6474) comes in at LDE and Brock moves inside to DT on obvious passing downs. Jones has developed into a solid all-around starter at left tackle for the Bengals, but even he will need consistent help versus Freeney off the edge. As a result, do not be surprised to see a lot of max-protection blocking schemes with the Bengals keeping TE Reggie Kelly (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4691) and/or Rudi Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5548) in as extra help.
If the Bengals can creatively find ways to buy Palmer the time he needs as a pocket passer, Palmer has the weapons and the proven ability to pick apart a Colts' secondary that is a bit more vulnerable right now than it was earlier in the season. For starters, Sanders might not be able to play because of the aforementioned knee injury, and even if he does play, his range in coverage is likely to be affected.
SS Mike Doss is a big hitter with adequate short-to-intermediate zone coverage skills, but will struggle if forced to make up more ground for a hobbled Sanders or a less reliable Joseph Jefferson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5960). Making matters worse, RDC Jason David (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6884) has struggled recently in terms of his recognition skills and decision making. David lacks ideal man-to-man cover skills and his indecisiveness has hurt him in zone coverage lately.
The Colts are getting solid play out of LDC Nick Harper (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5790) and nickel DC Marlin Jackson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=7205), but Harper is limited in terms of his speed and athletic ability, and Jackson is still capable of a mental breakdown as a rookie. With that in mind, look for the Bengals to spread the field with their usual three-receiver package of Chad Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5483), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5652) and emergin rookie Chris Henry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=7259) as much as possible, in order to put the pressure on the Colts' secondary.
Because of David's struggles, the Colts will have to roll coverages and maintain a cover-2 look throughout most of this game, in order to help him in his matchup versus Johnson. In doing so, there should be a lot of room that opens up for Houshmandzadeh and Henry to work on the opposite side.