sportznut
03-08-2005, 12:46 AM
Everyone loves cheap home runs. Like they say, chicks dig the long ball, but us fantasy owners dig getting tons of 'em at a discount. And why is that? The home run is perhaps the single most analyzed statistic in the game, making it difficult to find values in the category.
Had you picked a breakout power source such as Adam Dunn (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6763')) or Adrian Beltre (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6039')) last season, you know how it feels to reap the rewards of a player's breakout power year. Each slugger set a new career high in homers and RBI, topped 40-plus bombs and carried many fantasy teams to league titles. But can future such examples be forecasted?
Age, experience and a player's proficiency at producing extra-base hits can all serve as indicators that a hitter's "power surge" season is on the horizon. It's well documented that players generally reach their power peak in their mid-to-late-20s, though closer analysis puts that number nearer to 25 than the more commonly accepted 27. The year can vary, however, based on experience. Some players need three or four years in the majors to round into form; others need just one or two. Also, a player whose extra-base hit total amounts to at least 40 percent of his entire hit total could be primed for a breakout, so long as he also fits either the age or experience criteria. Most youngsters who exceed that benchmark eventually see their doubles and triples slowly begin to creep over outfield fences.
Dunn, 24 with three big-league seasons, and Beltre, 25 with six, each entered the 2004 season coming off a year in which they had 40-plus percent extra-base hit rates. And those aren't the only two examples; of the 10 players whose homer totals increased most from 2003-04, their average age was 26.2, experience was 4.4 seasons, and extra-base hit rate was 37.2, a little below but within range of the 40-percent benchmark. Of course, Moises Alou (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4517')) was the lone oddity as far as age (37), experience (12) and extra-base hit rate (36.7) go.
So who stands out as 2005's unheralded candidates for a power surge? The following 10 players are all 23 to 28 years old, have played at least one big-league season and were, at worst, within one percent of the 40-percent extra-base threshold (XBH) in 2004:
Bobby Crosby (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7223')), Age 25, Years 2, XBH rate 43.8: The Oakland shortstop went through some dry spells at the plate as a rookie, particularly when he batted just .208 after the All-Star break. But one thing's for certain -- he's got power, having led all American League rookies with 22 homers. Crosby could see a few more of those 34 doubles clear the fence as a sophomore, provided he cuts down a little on his free-swinging ways. He'll hit in more of a run-producing lineup spot, which will help; he batted .313 and averaged a homer per 19.2 at-bats in the Nos. 5 and 6 lineup spots, compared to .221 and 25.0 at 7, 8 and 9.
Michael Cuddyer (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6637')), Age 26, Years 4, XBH rate 39.3: He'll likely start at third base for the Twins, though it's possible he could start ahead of Luis Rivas (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6417')) at second base. Wherever Cuddyer plays, expect him to hit. He'll get his first chance at regular at-bats as a major leaguer, and has enough upside to surpass his previous professional best of 30 homers, set at Double-A New Britain in 2001. Cuddyer finally seemed to be catching up to big-league pitching the second half of last year, when he hit .287 with a .865 OPS and 1.3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, down from 1.7:1 before that the rest of his pro career.
Matt Holliday (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7311')), Age 25, Years 1, XBH rate 41.4: Pick most any youngster out of the Rockies' lineup and you could have yourself a power breakout, but Holliday stands out above the rest because he's just entering his power prime and performed remarkably well as a rookie before being lost for the year with an elbow injury last September. He hit every bit as well before the All-Star break (.290 average, .833 OPS) as after (.290, .844), crushed right-handed pitching (.307, .870) and was huge at Coors (.338, 1.009). Barring a disastrous spring, Holliday is virtually guaranteed the everyday left field job, and he'll hit in a run-producing lineup spot. A 30-homer, 90-RBI season shouldn't be surprising.
Austin Kearns (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6851')), Age 24, Years 3, XBH rate 42.0: Injuries are the main thing holding Kearns back from becoming a superstar, and let's not forget that he's still just 24 years old with lots of career ahead of him. Just four springs ago he and fellow Red outfielder Adam Dunn were considered equally talented prospects, which gives you a sense of Kearns' untapped potential. Kearns is looking healthy this spring, and while his injury history does make him a risky pick, don't take those 2004 totals to heart because he played hurt for almost all of those 64 games. Despite the terrible .230 average and .740 OPS, his career marks are still at .277 and .837.
Jason Lane (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6855')), Age 28, Years 3, XBH rate 43.2: The oldest player on the list, Lane might have enjoyed a power spike a year ago had the Astros not moved Craig Biggio (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4217')) to the outfield or acquired Carlos Beltran (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6132')) midseason, keeping Lane on the bench. This year, Lane gets his first real chance to play every day, and don't think Minute Maid Park's friendly confines won't help him; he's a .315-10-28-1-22 hitter there in 130 career at-bats. To give you a sense of his power potential, Lane averaged 25 homers and 107 RBI between the minors and majors from 2000-02.
Adam LaRoche (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7253')), Age 25, Years 1, XBH rate 45.6: A doubles machine for virtually his entire career, LaRoche seemed to develop a hint of power for the first time in his professional career the second half of last season. He batted .302 with 10 homers, 30 RBI and a .944 OPS, numbers right up there with all but Albert Pujols (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6619')) and Jim Thome (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4762')) among fantasy first basemen. LaRoche might play half his games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but he had a better home run rate there (one per 21.1 at-bats) than on the road (29.3) last year. It shouldn't be at all a shock if he pushes fellow platoon partner Julio Franco (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3001')) into a pinch-hitting role, then shatters his previous professional career high of 20 homers.
Kevin Mench (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6900')), Age 27, Years 3, XBH rate 48.4: While Mench did set a major-league career high with 26 homers, also matching his professional best of 27 if you add in his one homer in a rehab stint for Double-A Frisco, there's still some untapped power here. He's an extra-base hit machine, having amassed 29 the final two months of 2004, ranking him third in the American League during that span. Mench benefits greatly from the hitter-friendly confines of Ameriquest Field, but a word of caution regarding his possible price tag: Many people play up the "magical, mystical, wonderful age of 27" as the big power year, so don't let the bidding get out of hand. He does have a checkered injury history.
Justin Morneau (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7063')), Age 23, Years 2, XBH rate 47.4: The youngest player on the list, Morneau also has the best raw power of the bunch. At just 23 years old, he might be a couple of years removed from his power peak, but the 2005 season should be his welcoming party as one of the AL's premier power hitters for the next decade. Take a look at Morneau's second-half stats -- .270-17-55-0-35 -- or his full-year numbers between the minors and majors -- .289-41-121-1-90 -- and you'll get a sense of just how good he's going to become. Even if you're somewhat worried that his winter ailments might sap some of his power, he entered last spring at less than 100 percent and still fared fine. This year, however, he's guaranteed an everyday job. A 35-homer, 100-RBI season seems likely.
Laynce Nix (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7176')), Age 24, Years 2, XBH rate 41.3: He's the most unheralded name on the list and he's a player whose hitting skills only seemed to erode the second half of last season, but at the anticipated draft-day price, Nix isn't a bad pick to round out your roster. A shoulder problem was a major reason why he batted just .218 with a .605 OPS after the All-Star break, but the more serious concern is that Nix is still just a .170 hitter with a .497 OPS against left-handers in two seasons. Yes, he could wind up back in the minors or in a platoon, but when a kid who plays half his games in the AL's best hitters' park can drive the ball for extra bases at that kind of rate, he's a sleeper in my book.
Josh Phelps (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6494')), Age 26, Years 5, XBH rate 40.9: This guy has power breakout written all over him. Phelps, traditionally an all-or-nothing kind of slugger, has slipped into the forgettable fantasy category after two straight disappointing years, but a closer analysis says we shouldn't be so down on him for his 2003-04 performance. He never really got a chance to play regularly in Toronto, which hurt his timing, and the change of scenery he received late last year sent him to another situation where he was merely a bench player. Nevertheless, Phelps capitalized on the new surroundings, batting .303 with a .916 OPS, and now that he's fairly assured of regular at-bats in Tampa Bay, he could explode.
Others who didn't fit the bill: Khalil Greene (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7233')) batted .293 with 11 homers, 35 RBI and an .891 OPS the second half of last season, but his 37.9 extra-base hit rate kept him below the cut. Nevertheless, he could move up two spots in the San Diego lineup, so expect a small boost in homers and RBI. ... Miguel Olivo (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7028')) met all three criteria (age 26, years 3, XBH rate 45.7), but what kept him out of the 10 was the fact that he has to ensure he wrests the majority of the at-bats from Dan Wilson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4927')). Olivo is still a sleeper. ... Corey Patterson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6400')) is 25 with five years' experience, putting him right in line for a power surge, but his 37.5 extra-base hit rate also put him below the cut. He's another year removed from knee surgery, however, and I remain confident that this will be his first 30/30 campaign.
Had you picked a breakout power source such as Adam Dunn (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6763')) or Adrian Beltre (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6039')) last season, you know how it feels to reap the rewards of a player's breakout power year. Each slugger set a new career high in homers and RBI, topped 40-plus bombs and carried many fantasy teams to league titles. But can future such examples be forecasted?
Age, experience and a player's proficiency at producing extra-base hits can all serve as indicators that a hitter's "power surge" season is on the horizon. It's well documented that players generally reach their power peak in their mid-to-late-20s, though closer analysis puts that number nearer to 25 than the more commonly accepted 27. The year can vary, however, based on experience. Some players need three or four years in the majors to round into form; others need just one or two. Also, a player whose extra-base hit total amounts to at least 40 percent of his entire hit total could be primed for a breakout, so long as he also fits either the age or experience criteria. Most youngsters who exceed that benchmark eventually see their doubles and triples slowly begin to creep over outfield fences.
Dunn, 24 with three big-league seasons, and Beltre, 25 with six, each entered the 2004 season coming off a year in which they had 40-plus percent extra-base hit rates. And those aren't the only two examples; of the 10 players whose homer totals increased most from 2003-04, their average age was 26.2, experience was 4.4 seasons, and extra-base hit rate was 37.2, a little below but within range of the 40-percent benchmark. Of course, Moises Alou (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4517')) was the lone oddity as far as age (37), experience (12) and extra-base hit rate (36.7) go.
So who stands out as 2005's unheralded candidates for a power surge? The following 10 players are all 23 to 28 years old, have played at least one big-league season and were, at worst, within one percent of the 40-percent extra-base threshold (XBH) in 2004:
Bobby Crosby (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7223')), Age 25, Years 2, XBH rate 43.8: The Oakland shortstop went through some dry spells at the plate as a rookie, particularly when he batted just .208 after the All-Star break. But one thing's for certain -- he's got power, having led all American League rookies with 22 homers. Crosby could see a few more of those 34 doubles clear the fence as a sophomore, provided he cuts down a little on his free-swinging ways. He'll hit in more of a run-producing lineup spot, which will help; he batted .313 and averaged a homer per 19.2 at-bats in the Nos. 5 and 6 lineup spots, compared to .221 and 25.0 at 7, 8 and 9.
Michael Cuddyer (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6637')), Age 26, Years 4, XBH rate 39.3: He'll likely start at third base for the Twins, though it's possible he could start ahead of Luis Rivas (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6417')) at second base. Wherever Cuddyer plays, expect him to hit. He'll get his first chance at regular at-bats as a major leaguer, and has enough upside to surpass his previous professional best of 30 homers, set at Double-A New Britain in 2001. Cuddyer finally seemed to be catching up to big-league pitching the second half of last year, when he hit .287 with a .865 OPS and 1.3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, down from 1.7:1 before that the rest of his pro career.
Matt Holliday (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7311')), Age 25, Years 1, XBH rate 41.4: Pick most any youngster out of the Rockies' lineup and you could have yourself a power breakout, but Holliday stands out above the rest because he's just entering his power prime and performed remarkably well as a rookie before being lost for the year with an elbow injury last September. He hit every bit as well before the All-Star break (.290 average, .833 OPS) as after (.290, .844), crushed right-handed pitching (.307, .870) and was huge at Coors (.338, 1.009). Barring a disastrous spring, Holliday is virtually guaranteed the everyday left field job, and he'll hit in a run-producing lineup spot. A 30-homer, 90-RBI season shouldn't be surprising.
Austin Kearns (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6851')), Age 24, Years 3, XBH rate 42.0: Injuries are the main thing holding Kearns back from becoming a superstar, and let's not forget that he's still just 24 years old with lots of career ahead of him. Just four springs ago he and fellow Red outfielder Adam Dunn were considered equally talented prospects, which gives you a sense of Kearns' untapped potential. Kearns is looking healthy this spring, and while his injury history does make him a risky pick, don't take those 2004 totals to heart because he played hurt for almost all of those 64 games. Despite the terrible .230 average and .740 OPS, his career marks are still at .277 and .837.
Jason Lane (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6855')), Age 28, Years 3, XBH rate 43.2: The oldest player on the list, Lane might have enjoyed a power spike a year ago had the Astros not moved Craig Biggio (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4217')) to the outfield or acquired Carlos Beltran (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6132')) midseason, keeping Lane on the bench. This year, Lane gets his first real chance to play every day, and don't think Minute Maid Park's friendly confines won't help him; he's a .315-10-28-1-22 hitter there in 130 career at-bats. To give you a sense of his power potential, Lane averaged 25 homers and 107 RBI between the minors and majors from 2000-02.
Adam LaRoche (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7253')), Age 25, Years 1, XBH rate 45.6: A doubles machine for virtually his entire career, LaRoche seemed to develop a hint of power for the first time in his professional career the second half of last season. He batted .302 with 10 homers, 30 RBI and a .944 OPS, numbers right up there with all but Albert Pujols (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6619')) and Jim Thome (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4762')) among fantasy first basemen. LaRoche might play half his games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but he had a better home run rate there (one per 21.1 at-bats) than on the road (29.3) last year. It shouldn't be at all a shock if he pushes fellow platoon partner Julio Franco (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3001')) into a pinch-hitting role, then shatters his previous professional career high of 20 homers.
Kevin Mench (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6900')), Age 27, Years 3, XBH rate 48.4: While Mench did set a major-league career high with 26 homers, also matching his professional best of 27 if you add in his one homer in a rehab stint for Double-A Frisco, there's still some untapped power here. He's an extra-base hit machine, having amassed 29 the final two months of 2004, ranking him third in the American League during that span. Mench benefits greatly from the hitter-friendly confines of Ameriquest Field, but a word of caution regarding his possible price tag: Many people play up the "magical, mystical, wonderful age of 27" as the big power year, so don't let the bidding get out of hand. He does have a checkered injury history.
Justin Morneau (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7063')), Age 23, Years 2, XBH rate 47.4: The youngest player on the list, Morneau also has the best raw power of the bunch. At just 23 years old, he might be a couple of years removed from his power peak, but the 2005 season should be his welcoming party as one of the AL's premier power hitters for the next decade. Take a look at Morneau's second-half stats -- .270-17-55-0-35 -- or his full-year numbers between the minors and majors -- .289-41-121-1-90 -- and you'll get a sense of just how good he's going to become. Even if you're somewhat worried that his winter ailments might sap some of his power, he entered last spring at less than 100 percent and still fared fine. This year, however, he's guaranteed an everyday job. A 35-homer, 100-RBI season seems likely.
Laynce Nix (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7176')), Age 24, Years 2, XBH rate 41.3: He's the most unheralded name on the list and he's a player whose hitting skills only seemed to erode the second half of last season, but at the anticipated draft-day price, Nix isn't a bad pick to round out your roster. A shoulder problem was a major reason why he batted just .218 with a .605 OPS after the All-Star break, but the more serious concern is that Nix is still just a .170 hitter with a .497 OPS against left-handers in two seasons. Yes, he could wind up back in the minors or in a platoon, but when a kid who plays half his games in the AL's best hitters' park can drive the ball for extra bases at that kind of rate, he's a sleeper in my book.
Josh Phelps (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6494')), Age 26, Years 5, XBH rate 40.9: This guy has power breakout written all over him. Phelps, traditionally an all-or-nothing kind of slugger, has slipped into the forgettable fantasy category after two straight disappointing years, but a closer analysis says we shouldn't be so down on him for his 2003-04 performance. He never really got a chance to play regularly in Toronto, which hurt his timing, and the change of scenery he received late last year sent him to another situation where he was merely a bench player. Nevertheless, Phelps capitalized on the new surroundings, batting .303 with a .916 OPS, and now that he's fairly assured of regular at-bats in Tampa Bay, he could explode.
Others who didn't fit the bill: Khalil Greene (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7233')) batted .293 with 11 homers, 35 RBI and an .891 OPS the second half of last season, but his 37.9 extra-base hit rate kept him below the cut. Nevertheless, he could move up two spots in the San Diego lineup, so expect a small boost in homers and RBI. ... Miguel Olivo (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7028')) met all three criteria (age 26, years 3, XBH rate 45.7), but what kept him out of the 10 was the fact that he has to ensure he wrests the majority of the at-bats from Dan Wilson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4927')). Olivo is still a sleeper. ... Corey Patterson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6400')) is 25 with five years' experience, putting him right in line for a power surge, but his 37.5 extra-base hit rate also put him below the cut. He's another year removed from knee surgery, however, and I remain confident that this will be his first 30/30 campaign.