sportznut
02-28-2005, 10:56 AM
Cockcroft: Ten NL players to watch
Monday, February 28, 2005
Modified: Monday, February 28, 2005
Last week's column took a look at 10 American League players who I'm keeping my eye on this spring training. This week, let's take a look at 10 National League players whose spring numbers will mean the most towards their draft-day price tags:
10. Victor Zambrano (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6752')): He's anything but a master of control, averaging 5.34 walks per nine innings for his career and offering at least 100 free passes in each of the past two seasons. Nevertheless, Zambrano does have one big thing in his favor -- an excellent pitching coach in Rick Peterson, who raves about the right-hander's talent. Keep an eye on the health of Zambrano's elbow and his walk rate during the exhibition season, since the latter will be a prime indicator whether Peterson's tutelage is working. Remember, what transformed Randy Johnson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4288')) from a good pitcher earlier in his career into the great pitcher he is today was better control. It can only benefit Zambrano too.
SLEEPERS TO WATCH The biggest names aren't the only ones you should be watching during spring training. Here are five more players whose exhibition performances will tell a lot about their value for 2005:
Shawn Chacon (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6713')): So he was a terrible closer in 2004. So what? Chacon still did net his fantasy teams 35 saves, a healthy total, and he did bring some value as a starter in 2003 by going 8-2 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in his first 12 stats. If he racks up some nice spring totals, Chacon might not be a terrible $1 or reserve pick. At worst, if he starts off slowly, you can just cut him anyway without losing much.
Luke Hudson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6957')): Most believe he has better stuff than most anyone else on the roster, and Hudson did look rather good in a late-season trial in 2004, going 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA. Here's a scary thought: He wasn't even 100 percent healed from shoulder surgery at the time. A healthy spring will make Hudson a huge sleeper.
Edwin Jackson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7241')): It seems he's the forgotten man of the Dodgers rotation candidates, but make no mistake, Jackson probably has the most upside of the bunch. Many believe he'll someday be a Cy Young award winner, though that's understandably several years off. This spring, Jackson could net the fifth starter job if he looks good, and even if he does, so many owners now doubt his skills that he could be a considerable fantasy bargain.
Ryan Langerhans (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6920')): When a player garners a September call-up one season but doesn't the following year despite a strong campaign in Triple-A, most people assume he has inherited the label "minor-league journeyman." Don't fall into that trap with Langerhans, who finally broke through with a .298-20-72 year at Richmond. If Mondesi and Brian Jordan (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4823')) don't pan out, Langerhans is next in line for a starting job.
Chin-Hui Tsao: The leading contender to close in Colorado, Tsao was a one-time top prospect as a starting pitcher who has battled injuries the past two seasons. Pitching in shorter stints should lower the risk factor, and it's worth noting that relievers are slightly less susceptible to the Coors Field factor as well. If Tsao makes the adjustment to relieving well this spring, he'll be an intriguing bargain selection.
MORE TO THINK ABOUT
Lance Berkman (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6279')), who is recovering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his knee, is scheduled to resume baseball-related activities in about two weeks, and you never know whether he might press himself to appear in a couple of spring games. He might need just three to five games to get enough timing for the regular season, so keep an eye on his status in the final weeks of March ... Barry Bonds (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3918')) is off to a good start in his rehabilitation from knee surgery, but his spring numbers bear watching between the injury risk and all the steroid-related rumors. If he's still hitting well, he's still worthy of a mid-first round pick. ... Three pitchers whose spring numbers you should be watching closely: Chris Carpenter (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5771')), whose 2004 season was cut short due to biceps troubles; Brad Penny (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6276')), whose great career numbers in Dodger Stadium might mean a huge year if he can prove himself healthy; and Andy Pettitte (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5331')), who was pitching well last season before being hindered by elbow issues.
9. Jayson Werth (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6423')): He's this year's Luis Gonzalez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4576')), an outfielder trying to make it through the season despite a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. Gonzalez fell prey to Tommy John surgery last August, though there are a couple of key differences between the two. Werth's Dodgers are far less likely to fall out of the playoff race as early as Gonzalez's Diamondbacks did, which helped Gonzalez decide to have surgery, and Werth's ligament tear isn't considered as severe. Still, monitor Werth's hitting numbers this spring, as he showed some real promise in a part-time role in 2004. If he's looking healthy, he could break out in a big way as the projected starter in left field.
8. Austin Kearns (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6851')): Injuries have caused Kearns' batting average and OPS to decline in each of the past two seasons following his impressive debut in 2002. Forearm and thumb injuries limited him to just 64 games last year, fewer than Ken Griffey Jr. (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4305')), 11 years his elder. Kearns still has time to get his career on track -- he won't turn 25 until May -- and he's still only five years removed from a .306-27-104-18-110 season in Class A ball, demonstrating his immense upside. Unfortunately, he needs a big spring to have any chance at a starting job, with Griffey, Adam Dunn (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6763')), Wily Mo Pena (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6522')) and Ryan Freel (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6685')) vying for at-bats.
7. Jerome Williams (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6873')): He was considered a future Cy Young candidate while rising the Giants' minor-league ranks, and Williams is already 17-12 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.275 WHIP after two major-league seasons. About the only reason fantasy owners are skeptical about the 23-year-old's chances for 2005 is that he's coming off surgery to remove bone chips and a bone spur from his elbow. We'll get a good look at how healthy Williams is when the games get underway later this week, and it's important to remember he pitched well in his only start after returning from surgery last September. Assuming he's 100 percent this spring, he could be in for a breakout year.
6. Jerry Hairston Jr. (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6127')): When he was first acquired by the Cubs, Hairston appeared to fit as the team's everyday leadoff hitter and probable starter either at second base or in left field. Unfortunately, manager Dusty Baker seems to favor Todd Walker (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5700')) at second and Todd Hollandsworth (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5301')) in left, which leaves Hairston little to shoot for than a utility role, à la Jose Macias (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6219')). Fortunately, Hairston is one player who is usually at his best during spring training -- he's a .304-4-14-13 player in 73 games the past four springs -- so there's no saying he can't force Baker's hand. Hairston should earn a starting job somewhere, and a strong spring could mean as much as a .290-8-50-30 season.
5. Raul Mondesi (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5090')): Most people seem to think Mondesi's career is winding down, but a quick look at his age -- he'll turn 34 in just over a week -- says that he could have a couple more productive years left. The main reason everyone writes him off is the fact that he appeared in just 34 games as a result of personal and injury problems, but that's not nearly enough to declare a guy who hit 24 homers with 22 stolen bases just two years ago finished. Mondesi seems to have his life straightened out, and he's now on an Atlanta team that should give him every chance to play regularly in right field. Pay close attention to his spring steals totals, because there might yet be another 20/20 season left in him.
4. Jose Reyes (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7066')): Another player whose steals total warrants particular attention, Reyes should be watched even more closely than Mondesi because he has had hamstring issues that some believe might become a chronic problem. Reyes did survive the Dominican Winter League without any hamstring issues, and a healthy spring would make him a legitimate candidate for anywhere from 40-50 steals. Unfortunately, that's by far his most valuable category, so any problems in that area are going to sap his draft-day value. He's still not quite a .300-hitting, 20-homer candidate ... at least, not yet.
3. Ryan Dempster (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6006')): Everyone seems to have written down, perhaps in pencil, that Dempster is going to begin the year as the Cubs' closer. Why is that such a guarantee? The Cubs are already talking about using him as a starter in early spring games, which could be just as much an effort to get him enough innings to build arm strength to close on back-to-back days as it is to make him a contender for the fifth starter job. Dempster, who had Tommy John surgery in August 2003, looked strong in a late-season trial as a reliever in 2004, the likely reason for all the closer talk. Whatever his role, a strong spring will make him a much safer selection in fantasy drafts, especially if he can get that strikeout rate back near the 8.31 per nine inning ratio he displayed in 2000.
2. Javier Vazquez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5947')): One of 2004's biggest disappointments, Vazquez returns to the National League with a fresh outlook and a desire to prove the Yankees erred in trading him this winter. It remains to be seen, however, whether his struggles were more a result of a failure to adjust to the New York spotlight or a decline in velocity perhaps brought upon by arm weakness or a hidden injury. Vazquez's strikeout rate slipped to 6.82 per nine innings, his lowest in five years, and in the second half, it dropped to just 6.24 while his ERA ballooned to 6.92. Vazquez still has loads of potential, having struck out 241 batters with a 3.41 ERA just two seasons ago, but we need to see him bring that strikeout rate back up in the spring in order to be convinced that injuries and overuse are his real problems.
1. A.J. Burnett (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6314')): Of all the players in the National League, there might not be a bigger disparity in anyone's value this spring than that of Burnett. He looked great in his return from Tommy John surgery the second half of last season, but his elbow acted up in late September, casting his health back into doubt. If Burnett battles those injury issues again or isn't pitching effectively in the spring, it could be a sign he's not 100 percent, causing his value to dip into questionable status. However, a dominant spring could be the first sign that he might even be good enough to factor into the Cy Young voting at season's end. Remember, scouts rave about Burnett's raw talent, and his health is really the only potential obstacle. If he's looking good in March, it wouldn't be shocking to see him win 18 games with a sub-3.00 ERA and 200 strikeouts.
TRISTAN'S MAILBAG
Got a question or comment? Send them right here (http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/mailbagESPN?event_id=7053), and I'll address them in my column every week. Note: Please be sure to include your full name, city and state with your submission to be considered.
Phil Haspel, Ithaca, N.Y.: How can we know how to rate Adrian Beltre (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6039'))? What makes him more than a Brady Anderson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4155')) -- one brilliant year followed by unfulfilled expectations? It would seem that Beltre is a very good candidate for the most-likely-to-be-overpaid-for award.
Tristan: You made the comparison, so let's go with it for a second. Anderson indeed hit 50 homers out of nowhere in 1996, an increase of 34 from the year before (32 if you prorate that for games missed due to the strike). Beltre hit 48 last season, an increase of 25. But Anderson was 32 years old in 1996, and he played in a much friendlier hitters' park. Beltre, meanwhile, was 25 years old and just entering his prime in 2004, and he accomplished the feat in one of the game's most pitcher-friendly venues. His career path is clearly on its way up, while Anderson's had to be considered at the time a blip on the radar screen because it came so deep into his career. I'll say this, however: Don't be surprised if Beltre gets off to a slow start in his new digs. Even the superstars sometimes struggle with a league switch at first, though his final numbers shouldn't be far off his 2004 totals.
Matt, Hawthorne, N.J.: Which are the top five hitters parks in each league, and the top five pitchers parks in each league?
Tristan: Taking into account not only the numbers accumulated in each venue, but also the relative strengths and weaknesses of the home teams on the field in each, my top five AL hitters' parks are Ameriquest Field in Texas, U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, SkyDome in Toronto, Camden Yards in Baltimore and Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. The top five AL pitchers' parks are Safeco Field in Seattle, Network Associates Coliseum in Oakland, Comerica Park in Detroit, Angel Stadium of Anaheim and the Metrodome in Minnesota, though neither of the latter two parks are extremely pitcher-friendly by comparison. As for the NL, the top five hitters' parks are Coors Field in Colorado, Bank One Ballpark in Arizona, Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Minute Maid Park in Houston and Miller Park in Milwaukee; the top five pitchers' parks are Petco Park in San Diego, Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Pro Player Stadium in Florida, Shea Stadium in New York and SBC Park in San Francisco.
Monday, February 28, 2005
Modified: Monday, February 28, 2005
Last week's column took a look at 10 American League players who I'm keeping my eye on this spring training. This week, let's take a look at 10 National League players whose spring numbers will mean the most towards their draft-day price tags:
10. Victor Zambrano (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6752')): He's anything but a master of control, averaging 5.34 walks per nine innings for his career and offering at least 100 free passes in each of the past two seasons. Nevertheless, Zambrano does have one big thing in his favor -- an excellent pitching coach in Rick Peterson, who raves about the right-hander's talent. Keep an eye on the health of Zambrano's elbow and his walk rate during the exhibition season, since the latter will be a prime indicator whether Peterson's tutelage is working. Remember, what transformed Randy Johnson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4288')) from a good pitcher earlier in his career into the great pitcher he is today was better control. It can only benefit Zambrano too.
SLEEPERS TO WATCH The biggest names aren't the only ones you should be watching during spring training. Here are five more players whose exhibition performances will tell a lot about their value for 2005:
Shawn Chacon (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6713')): So he was a terrible closer in 2004. So what? Chacon still did net his fantasy teams 35 saves, a healthy total, and he did bring some value as a starter in 2003 by going 8-2 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in his first 12 stats. If he racks up some nice spring totals, Chacon might not be a terrible $1 or reserve pick. At worst, if he starts off slowly, you can just cut him anyway without losing much.
Luke Hudson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6957')): Most believe he has better stuff than most anyone else on the roster, and Hudson did look rather good in a late-season trial in 2004, going 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA. Here's a scary thought: He wasn't even 100 percent healed from shoulder surgery at the time. A healthy spring will make Hudson a huge sleeper.
Edwin Jackson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7241')): It seems he's the forgotten man of the Dodgers rotation candidates, but make no mistake, Jackson probably has the most upside of the bunch. Many believe he'll someday be a Cy Young award winner, though that's understandably several years off. This spring, Jackson could net the fifth starter job if he looks good, and even if he does, so many owners now doubt his skills that he could be a considerable fantasy bargain.
Ryan Langerhans (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6920')): When a player garners a September call-up one season but doesn't the following year despite a strong campaign in Triple-A, most people assume he has inherited the label "minor-league journeyman." Don't fall into that trap with Langerhans, who finally broke through with a .298-20-72 year at Richmond. If Mondesi and Brian Jordan (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4823')) don't pan out, Langerhans is next in line for a starting job.
Chin-Hui Tsao: The leading contender to close in Colorado, Tsao was a one-time top prospect as a starting pitcher who has battled injuries the past two seasons. Pitching in shorter stints should lower the risk factor, and it's worth noting that relievers are slightly less susceptible to the Coors Field factor as well. If Tsao makes the adjustment to relieving well this spring, he'll be an intriguing bargain selection.
MORE TO THINK ABOUT
Lance Berkman (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6279')), who is recovering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his knee, is scheduled to resume baseball-related activities in about two weeks, and you never know whether he might press himself to appear in a couple of spring games. He might need just three to five games to get enough timing for the regular season, so keep an eye on his status in the final weeks of March ... Barry Bonds (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3918')) is off to a good start in his rehabilitation from knee surgery, but his spring numbers bear watching between the injury risk and all the steroid-related rumors. If he's still hitting well, he's still worthy of a mid-first round pick. ... Three pitchers whose spring numbers you should be watching closely: Chris Carpenter (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5771')), whose 2004 season was cut short due to biceps troubles; Brad Penny (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6276')), whose great career numbers in Dodger Stadium might mean a huge year if he can prove himself healthy; and Andy Pettitte (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5331')), who was pitching well last season before being hindered by elbow issues.
9. Jayson Werth (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6423')): He's this year's Luis Gonzalez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4576')), an outfielder trying to make it through the season despite a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. Gonzalez fell prey to Tommy John surgery last August, though there are a couple of key differences between the two. Werth's Dodgers are far less likely to fall out of the playoff race as early as Gonzalez's Diamondbacks did, which helped Gonzalez decide to have surgery, and Werth's ligament tear isn't considered as severe. Still, monitor Werth's hitting numbers this spring, as he showed some real promise in a part-time role in 2004. If he's looking healthy, he could break out in a big way as the projected starter in left field.
8. Austin Kearns (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6851')): Injuries have caused Kearns' batting average and OPS to decline in each of the past two seasons following his impressive debut in 2002. Forearm and thumb injuries limited him to just 64 games last year, fewer than Ken Griffey Jr. (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4305')), 11 years his elder. Kearns still has time to get his career on track -- he won't turn 25 until May -- and he's still only five years removed from a .306-27-104-18-110 season in Class A ball, demonstrating his immense upside. Unfortunately, he needs a big spring to have any chance at a starting job, with Griffey, Adam Dunn (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6763')), Wily Mo Pena (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6522')) and Ryan Freel (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6685')) vying for at-bats.
7. Jerome Williams (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6873')): He was considered a future Cy Young candidate while rising the Giants' minor-league ranks, and Williams is already 17-12 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.275 WHIP after two major-league seasons. About the only reason fantasy owners are skeptical about the 23-year-old's chances for 2005 is that he's coming off surgery to remove bone chips and a bone spur from his elbow. We'll get a good look at how healthy Williams is when the games get underway later this week, and it's important to remember he pitched well in his only start after returning from surgery last September. Assuming he's 100 percent this spring, he could be in for a breakout year.
6. Jerry Hairston Jr. (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6127')): When he was first acquired by the Cubs, Hairston appeared to fit as the team's everyday leadoff hitter and probable starter either at second base or in left field. Unfortunately, manager Dusty Baker seems to favor Todd Walker (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5700')) at second and Todd Hollandsworth (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5301')) in left, which leaves Hairston little to shoot for than a utility role, à la Jose Macias (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6219')). Fortunately, Hairston is one player who is usually at his best during spring training -- he's a .304-4-14-13 player in 73 games the past four springs -- so there's no saying he can't force Baker's hand. Hairston should earn a starting job somewhere, and a strong spring could mean as much as a .290-8-50-30 season.
5. Raul Mondesi (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5090')): Most people seem to think Mondesi's career is winding down, but a quick look at his age -- he'll turn 34 in just over a week -- says that he could have a couple more productive years left. The main reason everyone writes him off is the fact that he appeared in just 34 games as a result of personal and injury problems, but that's not nearly enough to declare a guy who hit 24 homers with 22 stolen bases just two years ago finished. Mondesi seems to have his life straightened out, and he's now on an Atlanta team that should give him every chance to play regularly in right field. Pay close attention to his spring steals totals, because there might yet be another 20/20 season left in him.
4. Jose Reyes (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7066')): Another player whose steals total warrants particular attention, Reyes should be watched even more closely than Mondesi because he has had hamstring issues that some believe might become a chronic problem. Reyes did survive the Dominican Winter League without any hamstring issues, and a healthy spring would make him a legitimate candidate for anywhere from 40-50 steals. Unfortunately, that's by far his most valuable category, so any problems in that area are going to sap his draft-day value. He's still not quite a .300-hitting, 20-homer candidate ... at least, not yet.
3. Ryan Dempster (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6006')): Everyone seems to have written down, perhaps in pencil, that Dempster is going to begin the year as the Cubs' closer. Why is that such a guarantee? The Cubs are already talking about using him as a starter in early spring games, which could be just as much an effort to get him enough innings to build arm strength to close on back-to-back days as it is to make him a contender for the fifth starter job. Dempster, who had Tommy John surgery in August 2003, looked strong in a late-season trial as a reliever in 2004, the likely reason for all the closer talk. Whatever his role, a strong spring will make him a much safer selection in fantasy drafts, especially if he can get that strikeout rate back near the 8.31 per nine inning ratio he displayed in 2000.
2. Javier Vazquez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5947')): One of 2004's biggest disappointments, Vazquez returns to the National League with a fresh outlook and a desire to prove the Yankees erred in trading him this winter. It remains to be seen, however, whether his struggles were more a result of a failure to adjust to the New York spotlight or a decline in velocity perhaps brought upon by arm weakness or a hidden injury. Vazquez's strikeout rate slipped to 6.82 per nine innings, his lowest in five years, and in the second half, it dropped to just 6.24 while his ERA ballooned to 6.92. Vazquez still has loads of potential, having struck out 241 batters with a 3.41 ERA just two seasons ago, but we need to see him bring that strikeout rate back up in the spring in order to be convinced that injuries and overuse are his real problems.
1. A.J. Burnett (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6314')): Of all the players in the National League, there might not be a bigger disparity in anyone's value this spring than that of Burnett. He looked great in his return from Tommy John surgery the second half of last season, but his elbow acted up in late September, casting his health back into doubt. If Burnett battles those injury issues again or isn't pitching effectively in the spring, it could be a sign he's not 100 percent, causing his value to dip into questionable status. However, a dominant spring could be the first sign that he might even be good enough to factor into the Cy Young voting at season's end. Remember, scouts rave about Burnett's raw talent, and his health is really the only potential obstacle. If he's looking good in March, it wouldn't be shocking to see him win 18 games with a sub-3.00 ERA and 200 strikeouts.
TRISTAN'S MAILBAG
Got a question or comment? Send them right here (http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/mailbagESPN?event_id=7053), and I'll address them in my column every week. Note: Please be sure to include your full name, city and state with your submission to be considered.
Phil Haspel, Ithaca, N.Y.: How can we know how to rate Adrian Beltre (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6039'))? What makes him more than a Brady Anderson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4155')) -- one brilliant year followed by unfulfilled expectations? It would seem that Beltre is a very good candidate for the most-likely-to-be-overpaid-for award.
Tristan: You made the comparison, so let's go with it for a second. Anderson indeed hit 50 homers out of nowhere in 1996, an increase of 34 from the year before (32 if you prorate that for games missed due to the strike). Beltre hit 48 last season, an increase of 25. But Anderson was 32 years old in 1996, and he played in a much friendlier hitters' park. Beltre, meanwhile, was 25 years old and just entering his prime in 2004, and he accomplished the feat in one of the game's most pitcher-friendly venues. His career path is clearly on its way up, while Anderson's had to be considered at the time a blip on the radar screen because it came so deep into his career. I'll say this, however: Don't be surprised if Beltre gets off to a slow start in his new digs. Even the superstars sometimes struggle with a league switch at first, though his final numbers shouldn't be far off his 2004 totals.
Matt, Hawthorne, N.J.: Which are the top five hitters parks in each league, and the top five pitchers parks in each league?
Tristan: Taking into account not only the numbers accumulated in each venue, but also the relative strengths and weaknesses of the home teams on the field in each, my top five AL hitters' parks are Ameriquest Field in Texas, U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, SkyDome in Toronto, Camden Yards in Baltimore and Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. The top five AL pitchers' parks are Safeco Field in Seattle, Network Associates Coliseum in Oakland, Comerica Park in Detroit, Angel Stadium of Anaheim and the Metrodome in Minnesota, though neither of the latter two parks are extremely pitcher-friendly by comparison. As for the NL, the top five hitters' parks are Coors Field in Colorado, Bank One Ballpark in Arizona, Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Minute Maid Park in Houston and Miller Park in Milwaukee; the top five pitchers' parks are Petco Park in San Diego, Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Pro Player Stadium in Florida, Shea Stadium in New York and SBC Park in San Francisco.