sportznut
02-25-2005, 09:23 PM
Draft Strategies: Cheat Sheets and Dollar Values
Friday, February 25, 2005
Modified: Friday, February 25, 2005
At this point, you've probably read up on the past year's statistics, done some preliminary player evaluation and think you're pretty prepared for your league's draft. You already know that Justin Morneau (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7063')) had 17 homers and 55 RBI after last year's All-Star break, that Adrian Beltre (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6039')) led the majors with 26 second-half homers, that Jayson Werth (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6423')) has an elbow injury that could eventually require Tommy John surgery, and that both Shawn Chacon (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6713')) and John Smoltz (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4232')) are no longer closers and have instead been inserted into their team's rotations. But studying up for your draft isn't exactly like preparing for that high-school math test. There's a fundamental difference -- you won't get busted if you bring a cheat sheet to your draft. In the second installation of our draft strategy series, we take a look at how to develop cheat sheets and calculate dollar values.
BUILDING THE PERFECT LISTS
One of the common mistakes made by fantasy owners is bringing too many materials -- or the wrong ones -- with you to the draft table. A fantasy baseball draft is not a library exhibit. Books, magazines and piles of computer printouts do nothing but cause clutter, and I'm not only referring to the space you have on your table. Having multiple references with you creates doubt and confusion in your mind; I don't think I've ever seen an owner bring a pile of reference materials to a draft and not leaf through them helplessly when it's his/her pick. Folks, the time to be doing your research is before your draft, not at the event.
That's what the cheat sheet is for. Ask any high-school student about what the perfect cheat sheet would be, and he or she is probably going to tell you it'd be small, concise and have all the pertinent information for the big test. (Of course, he/she will probably first pretend he/she has never heard of such a thing to avoid getting into trouble.) It's the same idea for fantasy baseball: You want all the most important information for your draft compressed into one concise, handy reference sheet.
Of course, no two owners are going to have the same idea of the perfect cheat sheet. Here are a few of the styles people use:
The ranked player list: A simple list of players in the order of desired selection, with no stats, dollar values, projections, etc.
The dollar value list: Same as the first, only a player's dollar value is included. Most commonly found at auctions.
The detailed list: Along with rankings and dollar values, a player's eligible positions, 2004 stats and 2005 projections are also included.
None of the three approaches are bad ones, though I'd always recommend the latter if you have the time to do it. Remember, you don't want to go overboard, but the more information you have at your fingertips, the easier it will be to make your pick when your turn comes up. Having player stats on hand might not seem that important, but when you're in the final rounds and you need to know if there are any possible candidates for stolen bases or saves, two categories that dry up quickly, it's easier to locate them if the numbers are right there.
Alfonso Soriano (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6154)
Second Base
Texas Rangershttp://espn.go.com/i/mlb/profiles/players/6154.jpgProfile (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6154)
2004 SEASON STATISTICSGMHRRBIRSBAVG14528917718.280Of course, leave some room for notes if you found any useful tidbits during your draft research. If you found that Alfonso Soriano (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6154')) provides a noticeable advantage above the rest of the second base pool and you're committed to getting him at any price, put a little note next to his name. If you found that the shortstop position is chock full of sleepers, like Russ Adams (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7429')), Clint Barmes (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7231')) and Jhonny Peralta (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7156')), and you feel you can skip the top players for one of them in the later rounds, note that as well. But don't make your notes too obvious, in case a fellow owner happens to catch a glimpse of your sheet during the draft.
Some might ask why they would need to calculate and include dollar values if their league utilizes a draft. I know it seems silly to waste time formulating dollar values that you'll never actually use, but there's still value to the system, because it helps determine the relative difference in value between players or positions. I know it might seem silly spending time calculating Mike Lowell (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6133')) and David Wright (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7382')) at $16 and Troy Glaus (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6063')) at $13, but that helps unearth a value drop-off that can help you avoid picking someone like Glaus too early if the two owners before you just grabbed Lowell and Wright.
When setting dollar values, you need a good sense of your league's rules. In a 12-team league in which each team gets $260 with which to work, a total of $3,120 will be spent at the draft table. Most teams usually spend about 65 percent of that on hitting, 35 percent on pitching, meaning you should allocate a little over $2,000 towards hitters. If you have a different number of teams or auction cap, those numbers should be tweaked accordingly.
Make sure that every dollar that's going to be spent is accounted for. The total price of all players on your cheat sheet should equal the total number of teams times each team's auction cap. Any more or any less and your numbers won't be accurate. Also, you need to make sure that you have enough players listed even at the weaker positions, like catcher or second base. The 20th catcher -- a Miguel Olivo (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7028')) type -- might not be that appealing, but in a 12-team league that starts two catchers, he'll be a $1 player. Remember, while there's a big difference in statistics between a $1 second baseman and a $1 outfielder, their prices stay the same because of the requirement of having a second baseman.
If you're looking for a good starting point, check out our Auction Dollar Values (http://games.espn.go.com/cgi/flb/edge/story?id=1983206). Even if you don't agree with all of our projected prices, it's worth downloading them and adjusting things as you see fit. We base our prices on a mixed 12-team, Rotisserie 5x5 scoring system with a $260 auction cap. You'll notice that we didn't include many $1 players, because they're usually rookies, sleepers or throw-away types. Part of the fun of making your own dollar values is deciding your own $1 candidates, so feel free to add your own at the end of our list.
Once you're done with your rankings, dollar values and your cheat sheet in general, it's time to hit the draft table! In our next installment, we'll talk about some handy draft strategies...
Friday, February 25, 2005
Modified: Friday, February 25, 2005
At this point, you've probably read up on the past year's statistics, done some preliminary player evaluation and think you're pretty prepared for your league's draft. You already know that Justin Morneau (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7063')) had 17 homers and 55 RBI after last year's All-Star break, that Adrian Beltre (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6039')) led the majors with 26 second-half homers, that Jayson Werth (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6423')) has an elbow injury that could eventually require Tommy John surgery, and that both Shawn Chacon (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6713')) and John Smoltz (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4232')) are no longer closers and have instead been inserted into their team's rotations. But studying up for your draft isn't exactly like preparing for that high-school math test. There's a fundamental difference -- you won't get busted if you bring a cheat sheet to your draft. In the second installation of our draft strategy series, we take a look at how to develop cheat sheets and calculate dollar values.
BUILDING THE PERFECT LISTS
One of the common mistakes made by fantasy owners is bringing too many materials -- or the wrong ones -- with you to the draft table. A fantasy baseball draft is not a library exhibit. Books, magazines and piles of computer printouts do nothing but cause clutter, and I'm not only referring to the space you have on your table. Having multiple references with you creates doubt and confusion in your mind; I don't think I've ever seen an owner bring a pile of reference materials to a draft and not leaf through them helplessly when it's his/her pick. Folks, the time to be doing your research is before your draft, not at the event.
That's what the cheat sheet is for. Ask any high-school student about what the perfect cheat sheet would be, and he or she is probably going to tell you it'd be small, concise and have all the pertinent information for the big test. (Of course, he/she will probably first pretend he/she has never heard of such a thing to avoid getting into trouble.) It's the same idea for fantasy baseball: You want all the most important information for your draft compressed into one concise, handy reference sheet.
Of course, no two owners are going to have the same idea of the perfect cheat sheet. Here are a few of the styles people use:
The ranked player list: A simple list of players in the order of desired selection, with no stats, dollar values, projections, etc.
The dollar value list: Same as the first, only a player's dollar value is included. Most commonly found at auctions.
The detailed list: Along with rankings and dollar values, a player's eligible positions, 2004 stats and 2005 projections are also included.
None of the three approaches are bad ones, though I'd always recommend the latter if you have the time to do it. Remember, you don't want to go overboard, but the more information you have at your fingertips, the easier it will be to make your pick when your turn comes up. Having player stats on hand might not seem that important, but when you're in the final rounds and you need to know if there are any possible candidates for stolen bases or saves, two categories that dry up quickly, it's easier to locate them if the numbers are right there.
Alfonso Soriano (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6154)
Second Base
Texas Rangershttp://espn.go.com/i/mlb/profiles/players/6154.jpgProfile (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6154)
2004 SEASON STATISTICSGMHRRBIRSBAVG14528917718.280Of course, leave some room for notes if you found any useful tidbits during your draft research. If you found that Alfonso Soriano (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6154')) provides a noticeable advantage above the rest of the second base pool and you're committed to getting him at any price, put a little note next to his name. If you found that the shortstop position is chock full of sleepers, like Russ Adams (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7429')), Clint Barmes (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7231')) and Jhonny Peralta (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7156')), and you feel you can skip the top players for one of them in the later rounds, note that as well. But don't make your notes too obvious, in case a fellow owner happens to catch a glimpse of your sheet during the draft.
Some might ask why they would need to calculate and include dollar values if their league utilizes a draft. I know it seems silly to waste time formulating dollar values that you'll never actually use, but there's still value to the system, because it helps determine the relative difference in value between players or positions. I know it might seem silly spending time calculating Mike Lowell (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6133')) and David Wright (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7382')) at $16 and Troy Glaus (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6063')) at $13, but that helps unearth a value drop-off that can help you avoid picking someone like Glaus too early if the two owners before you just grabbed Lowell and Wright.
When setting dollar values, you need a good sense of your league's rules. In a 12-team league in which each team gets $260 with which to work, a total of $3,120 will be spent at the draft table. Most teams usually spend about 65 percent of that on hitting, 35 percent on pitching, meaning you should allocate a little over $2,000 towards hitters. If you have a different number of teams or auction cap, those numbers should be tweaked accordingly.
Make sure that every dollar that's going to be spent is accounted for. The total price of all players on your cheat sheet should equal the total number of teams times each team's auction cap. Any more or any less and your numbers won't be accurate. Also, you need to make sure that you have enough players listed even at the weaker positions, like catcher or second base. The 20th catcher -- a Miguel Olivo (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7028')) type -- might not be that appealing, but in a 12-team league that starts two catchers, he'll be a $1 player. Remember, while there's a big difference in statistics between a $1 second baseman and a $1 outfielder, their prices stay the same because of the requirement of having a second baseman.
If you're looking for a good starting point, check out our Auction Dollar Values (http://games.espn.go.com/cgi/flb/edge/story?id=1983206). Even if you don't agree with all of our projected prices, it's worth downloading them and adjusting things as you see fit. We base our prices on a mixed 12-team, Rotisserie 5x5 scoring system with a $260 auction cap. You'll notice that we didn't include many $1 players, because they're usually rookies, sleepers or throw-away types. Part of the fun of making your own dollar values is deciding your own $1 candidates, so feel free to add your own at the end of our list.
Once you're done with your rankings, dollar values and your cheat sheet in general, it's time to hit the draft table! In our next installment, we'll talk about some handy draft strategies...