Reilly
02-24-2005, 04:37 AM
Let's face it: Humans were never meant to throw a baseball 4,000-plus times a year; the repetitive nature puts tremendous wear and tear on an individual's arm, elbow and shoulder. Yet the most skilled pitchers are asked to carry just that type of workload, and, as with any exercise performed in excess, there are consequences.
Those consequences can come in two forms: Injury and diminished performance. Either one can kill a fantasy team, as we saw with Mark Prior (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6787')) (former) and Dontrelle Willis (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7133')) (latter) in 2004. And it's usually the pitchers abused at a younger age that fall prey to these problems, which makes it all the more frustrating. Aren't older players supposed to be the ones most susceptible to injury or a decline in numbers?
What if there was a way to identify these overworked arms?
I won't begin to claim that I have the key to finding every pitching injury. Each pitcher differs in makeup, stamina and durability. But I do have a system to identify breakdown candidates for 2005, and it's determined by following this set of rules: 1. The pitcher can be no older than 27 as of opening day; 2. He must have set a career high in innings in 2004, counting all work in the minors, majors and in the major-league postseason; 3. His innings total -- again minors, majors and postseason -- must have increased by at least 50 between 2003-04; and 4. He must have pitched no fewer than 50 major-league innings in 2003.
Thirteen pitchers met all four criteria entering the 2004 season, including Prior and Willis. Nine endured an increase in ERA; the group as a whole declined by an average of 33 innings apiece. Only Kelvim Escobar (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5841')), Wil Ledezma and Carlos Zambrano (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6559')) saw both their ERA and innings totals increase, but then again, there's no foolproof plan to predict these things. Ten of 13 pitchers, or 76.9 percent, declined in value, which is a pretty high rate.
It seems teams are catching on to the risks of high innings totals, which is why only eight pitchers made the 2005 list. They're listed below with their ages, and are ranked by their 2003-04 innings increase, which is in parentheses along with their 2004 innings totals:
Roy Oswalt (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6646')), 27 (126 innings increase/256.1 innings in 2004): Let's put aside the fact that he's coming off a 20-win season and has a 3.11 ERA after four years in the majors. Between the regular season and postseason, Oswalt threw 3,906 pitches, the third highest total in the majors behind Pedro Martinez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4875')) (3,949) and Livan Hernandez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5734')) (3,926). Granted, Oswalt averaged fewer pitches per plate appearance (3.64) than about two-thirds of the qualified starters in 2004, but we're still talking about a pitcher who has topped 230 innings in a season twice before his 28th birthday. The last time he did it, in 2002, he declined by 105.2 innings the following year. Don't write off Oswalt, but keep in mind the workload risk.
Erik Bedard (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6910')), 26 (123/142.1): It's not like Bedard has much room to decline from his 6-10 record and 4.59 ERA of a year ago, but there are some who view him as a sleeper in 2005 since he'll be entering his second full season since Tommy John surgery. I'd hold off on that. Bedard has never been known as a workhorse throughout his professional career, never topping 111 innings in a single season before 2004. He's also a smallish pitcher whose stuff really didn't improve like some who have had the surgery; Bedard's ERA was actually worse after the All-Star break (5.31) than before (4.01). That's a bad sign.
Carlos Silva (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6880')), 25 (120.2/208): You have to give Silva all due credit for what he did in 2004. After all, how many pitchers can spend three years as a minor-league starter followed by two years as a major-league reliever, and then endure not only a league change, but a switch back to starting the very next season, all the while still remaining an effective pitcher? OK, "effective" is a subjective term -- Silva did allow the third-most hits in baseball (255), and he has now surrendered nearly 10.5 hits per nine innings for his career. He was a pretty good fantasy bet for much of 2004, but he's now too hittable and overworked to repeat the effort.
Mike Wood (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7216')), 24 (85/190): He's another pitcher whom no one will confuse with a Cy Young candidate, but some people are going to hail Wood as another possible breakout arm merely because he's a product of the Oakland farm system, as if everyone the team develops has the same genes as Tim Hudson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6245')) or Barry Zito (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6394')). Hasn't anyone considered that maybe the reason the Athletics traded Wood is because he lacks the upside of a true ace? Ted Lilly (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6223')) might be the only pitcher they've mistakenly dealt the past half-decade. Wood's not even guaranteed a rotation spot for 2005, and even if he earns one, he'll probably be worked hard since the Royals lack pitching depth.
Jason Marquis (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6493')), 26 (81/215.2): He's a great talent who finally realized his full potential once he got a committed rotation spot in St. Louis, but Marquis' prior reputation as a difficult pitcher to coach still lurks somewhere deep down. If he's focused, there's no doubting his ability to be a solid second- or third-tier fantasy starter. If he's not, well, suffice to say Rick Ankiel (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6320')) could soon get his chance. Unfortunately for Marquis, pitchers coming off the best years of their careers rarely make great fantasy investments, especially when coupled with that kind of workload increase. Expect the numbers to decline in 2005.
Johan Santana (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6441')), 26 (74/240): His inclusion will probably send waves of panic throughout the fantasy industry since Santana tied for No. 1 on last year's Player Rater. How can perhaps the game's best young pitcher be a breakdown candidate? Sadly, Santana qualifies, but only because his 2003 innings total was kept down by the fact that he pitched 27 games in relief. Before you go writing him off, however, keep a couple things in mind: 1. Most of the top-10 fantasy pitchers have at least one serious question surrounding them. That's why pitchers are so risky. 2. Santana's relief work early in his major-league career might actually HELP his career more than hurt it. His arm was preserved, and his inclusion should serve more as a warning sign to the Twins not to overuse him two years straight. I wouldn't downgrade Santana at all, but if he throws 225-plus frames again, he'll become a keeper-league risk.
Jake Westbrook (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6500')), 27 (72.2/215.2): As with Marquis, Westbrook is going to be a fantasy risk for 2005 if only because pitchers coming off unexpected career years generally make poor investments. Westbrook was always touted as a potential No. 3 or 4 major-league starter when he was rising the minor-league ranks, but who would have guessed he'd be as good as he was last year? He had a 2.36 ERA at Jacobs Field, and that's a hitter-friendly ballpark. Westbrook's sinker induces a high number of ground balls and makes him less risky than most comparable options, but he's still more likely to take a step backward than forward.
Brandon Backe (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6965')), 26 (52.2/131.1): He was a postseason hero of sorts, since most people believed the Astros had nobody worth starting other than Oswalt and Roger Clemens (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3340')). But the list of unheralded postseason stars who flopped the following season is extensive -- Sterling Hitchcock (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4949')) immediately comes to mind -- and Backe is going to be asked to shoulder a much heftier burden in 2005 as a result. Keep in mind he started just 25 of 102 career minor-league games, and his previous career high in innings was 105.1, set in 2002. Backe's the kind of pitcher who can probably get off to a good start, but one you should then trade before what will likely be an inevitable second-half decline.
I know relievers don't generally throw enough innings to be included in this exercise, so here are two who could suffer as a result of comparably large increases in innings last season: Chad Cordero (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7221')), 23 (45.1/82.2). Whether you only want to account for the work he did in the professional ranks in 2003 or include his college totals, he's a workload concern either way. Take into account the college totals and he threw close to 100 innings over a much longer span of time in 2003 than the typical major leaguer, and that has to catch up to him sooner or later. Yhency Brazoban (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7395')), 24 (36.2/96). He breezed from rookie ball all the way to the majors from the beginning of 2003 through the end of 2004, and now he'll be Eric Gagne (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6342'))'s primary setup man. Making all those adjustments to new sets of hitters and increased roles has to get the best of him this season.
OFF THE LIST, BUT NONETHELESS RISKY
The following four pitchers were too old to meet my criteria, but they still strike me as risks for 2005 based on their likely draft prices:
Mark Buehrle (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6525')): He has averaged 234 innings pitched the past four seasons, the most in the majors, and he's not even 26. For all the talk that he's an efficient pitcher, averaging 3.65 pitches per plate appearances for his career, that's still an awful lot of throws for such a young arm. It has to catch up with him sooner or later.
Chris Carpenter (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5771')): He'll turn 30 in April and is coming off a season in which he threw 182 innings, more than he threw in 2002-03 combined. Carpenter will also report to spring training needing to prove his health for the second straight year. This time he's coming off a biceps injury that cost him the postseason.
Randy Johnson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4288')): He's 41 years old and he doesn't have any cartilage in his knee. How much longer can he keep this up? You can count the number of 40-year-old 20-game winners on one hand. Even Nolan Ryan missed some time due to injuries after turning 40, so the odds are stacked against another 35-start, 20-win, 245-inning campaign from Randy.
Jaret Wright (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5839')): He threw 195.1 innings in 2004, just 17.2 short of his entire total from 2001-03. That's a huge increase in workload for any pitcher regardless of age, especially when his next challenge is adapting to the spotlight of New York, a league switch and a separation from Leo Mazzone, who deserves much of the credit for turning Wright's career around.
Those consequences can come in two forms: Injury and diminished performance. Either one can kill a fantasy team, as we saw with Mark Prior (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6787')) (former) and Dontrelle Willis (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7133')) (latter) in 2004. And it's usually the pitchers abused at a younger age that fall prey to these problems, which makes it all the more frustrating. Aren't older players supposed to be the ones most susceptible to injury or a decline in numbers?
What if there was a way to identify these overworked arms?
I won't begin to claim that I have the key to finding every pitching injury. Each pitcher differs in makeup, stamina and durability. But I do have a system to identify breakdown candidates for 2005, and it's determined by following this set of rules: 1. The pitcher can be no older than 27 as of opening day; 2. He must have set a career high in innings in 2004, counting all work in the minors, majors and in the major-league postseason; 3. His innings total -- again minors, majors and postseason -- must have increased by at least 50 between 2003-04; and 4. He must have pitched no fewer than 50 major-league innings in 2003.
Thirteen pitchers met all four criteria entering the 2004 season, including Prior and Willis. Nine endured an increase in ERA; the group as a whole declined by an average of 33 innings apiece. Only Kelvim Escobar (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5841')), Wil Ledezma and Carlos Zambrano (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6559')) saw both their ERA and innings totals increase, but then again, there's no foolproof plan to predict these things. Ten of 13 pitchers, or 76.9 percent, declined in value, which is a pretty high rate.
It seems teams are catching on to the risks of high innings totals, which is why only eight pitchers made the 2005 list. They're listed below with their ages, and are ranked by their 2003-04 innings increase, which is in parentheses along with their 2004 innings totals:
Roy Oswalt (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6646')), 27 (126 innings increase/256.1 innings in 2004): Let's put aside the fact that he's coming off a 20-win season and has a 3.11 ERA after four years in the majors. Between the regular season and postseason, Oswalt threw 3,906 pitches, the third highest total in the majors behind Pedro Martinez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4875')) (3,949) and Livan Hernandez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5734')) (3,926). Granted, Oswalt averaged fewer pitches per plate appearance (3.64) than about two-thirds of the qualified starters in 2004, but we're still talking about a pitcher who has topped 230 innings in a season twice before his 28th birthday. The last time he did it, in 2002, he declined by 105.2 innings the following year. Don't write off Oswalt, but keep in mind the workload risk.
Erik Bedard (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6910')), 26 (123/142.1): It's not like Bedard has much room to decline from his 6-10 record and 4.59 ERA of a year ago, but there are some who view him as a sleeper in 2005 since he'll be entering his second full season since Tommy John surgery. I'd hold off on that. Bedard has never been known as a workhorse throughout his professional career, never topping 111 innings in a single season before 2004. He's also a smallish pitcher whose stuff really didn't improve like some who have had the surgery; Bedard's ERA was actually worse after the All-Star break (5.31) than before (4.01). That's a bad sign.
Carlos Silva (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6880')), 25 (120.2/208): You have to give Silva all due credit for what he did in 2004. After all, how many pitchers can spend three years as a minor-league starter followed by two years as a major-league reliever, and then endure not only a league change, but a switch back to starting the very next season, all the while still remaining an effective pitcher? OK, "effective" is a subjective term -- Silva did allow the third-most hits in baseball (255), and he has now surrendered nearly 10.5 hits per nine innings for his career. He was a pretty good fantasy bet for much of 2004, but he's now too hittable and overworked to repeat the effort.
Mike Wood (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7216')), 24 (85/190): He's another pitcher whom no one will confuse with a Cy Young candidate, but some people are going to hail Wood as another possible breakout arm merely because he's a product of the Oakland farm system, as if everyone the team develops has the same genes as Tim Hudson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6245')) or Barry Zito (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6394')). Hasn't anyone considered that maybe the reason the Athletics traded Wood is because he lacks the upside of a true ace? Ted Lilly (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6223')) might be the only pitcher they've mistakenly dealt the past half-decade. Wood's not even guaranteed a rotation spot for 2005, and even if he earns one, he'll probably be worked hard since the Royals lack pitching depth.
Jason Marquis (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6493')), 26 (81/215.2): He's a great talent who finally realized his full potential once he got a committed rotation spot in St. Louis, but Marquis' prior reputation as a difficult pitcher to coach still lurks somewhere deep down. If he's focused, there's no doubting his ability to be a solid second- or third-tier fantasy starter. If he's not, well, suffice to say Rick Ankiel (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6320')) could soon get his chance. Unfortunately for Marquis, pitchers coming off the best years of their careers rarely make great fantasy investments, especially when coupled with that kind of workload increase. Expect the numbers to decline in 2005.
Johan Santana (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6441')), 26 (74/240): His inclusion will probably send waves of panic throughout the fantasy industry since Santana tied for No. 1 on last year's Player Rater. How can perhaps the game's best young pitcher be a breakdown candidate? Sadly, Santana qualifies, but only because his 2003 innings total was kept down by the fact that he pitched 27 games in relief. Before you go writing him off, however, keep a couple things in mind: 1. Most of the top-10 fantasy pitchers have at least one serious question surrounding them. That's why pitchers are so risky. 2. Santana's relief work early in his major-league career might actually HELP his career more than hurt it. His arm was preserved, and his inclusion should serve more as a warning sign to the Twins not to overuse him two years straight. I wouldn't downgrade Santana at all, but if he throws 225-plus frames again, he'll become a keeper-league risk.
Jake Westbrook (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6500')), 27 (72.2/215.2): As with Marquis, Westbrook is going to be a fantasy risk for 2005 if only because pitchers coming off unexpected career years generally make poor investments. Westbrook was always touted as a potential No. 3 or 4 major-league starter when he was rising the minor-league ranks, but who would have guessed he'd be as good as he was last year? He had a 2.36 ERA at Jacobs Field, and that's a hitter-friendly ballpark. Westbrook's sinker induces a high number of ground balls and makes him less risky than most comparable options, but he's still more likely to take a step backward than forward.
Brandon Backe (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6965')), 26 (52.2/131.1): He was a postseason hero of sorts, since most people believed the Astros had nobody worth starting other than Oswalt and Roger Clemens (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3340')). But the list of unheralded postseason stars who flopped the following season is extensive -- Sterling Hitchcock (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4949')) immediately comes to mind -- and Backe is going to be asked to shoulder a much heftier burden in 2005 as a result. Keep in mind he started just 25 of 102 career minor-league games, and his previous career high in innings was 105.1, set in 2002. Backe's the kind of pitcher who can probably get off to a good start, but one you should then trade before what will likely be an inevitable second-half decline.
I know relievers don't generally throw enough innings to be included in this exercise, so here are two who could suffer as a result of comparably large increases in innings last season: Chad Cordero (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7221')), 23 (45.1/82.2). Whether you only want to account for the work he did in the professional ranks in 2003 or include his college totals, he's a workload concern either way. Take into account the college totals and he threw close to 100 innings over a much longer span of time in 2003 than the typical major leaguer, and that has to catch up to him sooner or later. Yhency Brazoban (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7395')), 24 (36.2/96). He breezed from rookie ball all the way to the majors from the beginning of 2003 through the end of 2004, and now he'll be Eric Gagne (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6342'))'s primary setup man. Making all those adjustments to new sets of hitters and increased roles has to get the best of him this season.
OFF THE LIST, BUT NONETHELESS RISKY
The following four pitchers were too old to meet my criteria, but they still strike me as risks for 2005 based on their likely draft prices:
Mark Buehrle (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6525')): He has averaged 234 innings pitched the past four seasons, the most in the majors, and he's not even 26. For all the talk that he's an efficient pitcher, averaging 3.65 pitches per plate appearances for his career, that's still an awful lot of throws for such a young arm. It has to catch up with him sooner or later.
Chris Carpenter (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5771')): He'll turn 30 in April and is coming off a season in which he threw 182 innings, more than he threw in 2002-03 combined. Carpenter will also report to spring training needing to prove his health for the second straight year. This time he's coming off a biceps injury that cost him the postseason.
Randy Johnson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4288')): He's 41 years old and he doesn't have any cartilage in his knee. How much longer can he keep this up? You can count the number of 40-year-old 20-game winners on one hand. Even Nolan Ryan missed some time due to injuries after turning 40, so the odds are stacked against another 35-start, 20-win, 245-inning campaign from Randy.
Jaret Wright (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5839')): He threw 195.1 innings in 2004, just 17.2 short of his entire total from 2001-03. That's a huge increase in workload for any pitcher regardless of age, especially when his next challenge is adapting to the spotlight of New York, a league switch and a separation from Leo Mazzone, who deserves much of the credit for turning Wright's career around.