sportznut
02-24-2005, 01:31 AM
Q & A about some fantasy players you might be interested in.
Soriano, Hollandsworth: Posted 5:47 p.m. ET, Wednesday, Feb. 23
Let's check the mailbox. No comments on the Urbina section from earlier, but there have been some other thoughts.
From BK in Wilmington, NC: "Hi Eric, I'm baffled to see Alfonso Soriano (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6154')) ranked as low as he is in every draft projection. I consider him to be a top 5 player overall. You can't look past 2002 and 2003, where his numbers were as good as Carlos Beltran (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6132'))'s. He also plays at a weaker position. He's still a 30-25 player. What do you think?"
Well, there's a reason Soriano's projections have lessened, and more people than not think that 2004 is not a fluke. I'll explain. As a Yankee, Soriano wasn't hitting in the middle of the order, wasn't expected to be a run producer. In 2003 with the Yanks, Soriano finished at 38-91-35. Incredible stats for any position, but this guy plays second base! So he WAS Carlos Beltran, but at an impossible position. Anyway, all but 55 of those Soriano at-bats came in the leadoff spot. Players run more hitting first. It's documented. In many cases, players are more relaxed. There's nobody on base, they lead off many innings, pitchers attack them differently. In 2002, Soriano had all but 17 of his 696 at-bats leading off. I think this is a big reason why Soriano's numbers changed this season. That said, I fully expect his power stats to rise again, for even he admits that he began 2004 out of whack because of the trade. How would you feel leaving a perennial World Series team for a place even the best player in the game couldn't succeed. There was pressure on him for the first time, coming off his poor performance in the 2003 playoffs, and being traded for Alex Rodriguez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5275')). With the Rangers, Soriano hit third in 79.7 percent of his many at-bats, and stole only 11 bases there.
Bottom line is, Soriano remains a fantastic fantasy player, a top 10 guy, possibly as high as five in some leagues, especially due to the position he plays (who would you draft second at 2B? Not so easy, is it?) but also because he will steal some bases. But I don't think Soriano is a 30-30 threat anymore. I could be wrong, but playing for Texas, a team that had All-Stars at each infield position, Soriano won't run as much. I do see the power rising, though, and predict a 35-110 season, but steals in the 15-20 range. Is it worth Beltran, who plays a common position and steals more bases? Hard to tell, but your point is a valid one since you're not expecting 40-40.
And this from Drew in Avila, Ind., who comments on the Todd Hollandsworth (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5301')) section of this week's Hot/Not (http://games.espn.go.com/content/flb/2005/story?id=1998057). "Eric, love all your articles. In this case, I think you may have a typo or something. As someone who watched all 162 Cubs games last year, Todd Hollandsworth is not going to approach 3 steals, let alone 20. I think when you made your comment that he would be a darkhorse for 20-20, you must have meant 20-80 (HR, RBI)? Hollandsworth attempted two steals last year, and both were on fluke plays. I just know how excited every reader gets when they see "20-20" or "30-30", and I don't want anyone to be fooled. What if we combine the outfield platoon of Hollandsworth and Hairston? Then we're looking at 20-20 no question about it."
Good point, except it wasn't a typo. Hollandsworth did not run last season, but he does have some track record of running, and I assumed that as a full-time player, he'd go back to it. I mean, how could he run last year, when he ended up making so few starts. Hollandsworth had only 132 at-bats not as a pinch hitter, and he hit fifth in 91 of them. Maybe 20 steals is a little strong, but this guy did swipe 21 bases as a rookie, and 18 bags in 2000. With his knee problems, I admit 20 is too much to ask for, so I'll revise to 20-10. Still potential there, though personally I'd prefer to avoid him in drafts.
Urbina's Deal: Posted 1:13 p.m. ET, Wednesday, Feb. 23
If you owned Ugueth Urbina (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5385')) last year, you couldn't be pleased with what happened in September. And if you own him in a keeper league, what the Tigers did this offseason didn't make you smile, either.
Sometimes real life makes fantasy irrelevant, like in Urbina's case, with his mother being kidnapped. I can't pretend to know what he went through, and nothing I write here means I'm not sympathetic. Let's separate that from fantasy baseball. What I do know is that Urbina went from a middle-of-the-road closer to setup man through no fault of his own. What does it all mean for this season? Well, that real-life story hasn't been written yet.
Urbina saved 21 games last season for the Tigers, in five months of work. (Remember, he didn't pitch in September.) His ERA was high (4.50), as was his WHIP (1.30), but blame the walks. Urbina was unhittable, allowing opponents a .194 average, divided almost evenly between left-handed batters and righties. Basically, he got lit because he was his own worst enemy. But he was also on his way to 30 saves, making him a borderline top-20 closer.
OK, so the guy can still pitch. Then why did Detroit sign another closer, one only marginally better (and older) statistically, to a two-year deal worth $12 million? Troy Percival (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5315')) is a fine closer, but if Urbina was ranked 20th last year, what was Percival, 15th? You see the point.
So what could happen to Urbina going forward? Well, I do see potential for good things here. First, let's say Urbina's mindset is right, that mentally he has recovered from the family ordeal and pitches well. Every season there are at least 10 middle relievers who put up terrific numbers. Urbina has set up before, back with Florida, and was terrific. In theory, he's Detroit's eighth-inning guy, but we know Percival hits the DL every year, so Urbina should get some save opps. I'm assuming that Urbina could get his ERA down to his normal 3 range, remain a factor in strikeouts, and get up to 10 saves. That's if he stays. The other good thing that could happen is Urbina could be traded. He's been the subject of trade talks. Today we hear that the Mets offered up Mike Cameron (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5492')) for Urbina. Maybe it's not true, but it's interesting. Would Urbina close over Braden Looper (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5966'))? He certainly could. A rumor I haven't heard is Urbina to the Cubs. They have no clear closer. They just cleared salary in the Kyle Farnsworth (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6210')) dump job, pretty much the same salary Urbina makes. Of course, Farnsworth went TO Detroit, so why wasn't Urbina in the deal? Hmmm. Other teams that could look at Urbina as a closer are Colorado, with no great options among the choices, Baltimore now that the only option is lefty B.J. Ryan (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6294')), and possibly Arizona, the White Sox, Cleveland, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Seattle and Toronto. Yes, these teams have closers, but would you feel safe with Bob Wickman (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4919')) or Mike Adams (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7332')) as your closer? Just throwing it out there.
What does this all mean for your draft, if it's today? Well, I would draft Urbina very late, assume he's a quality middle reliever in the Tom Gordon (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4279')) mold, and hope he becomes a closer. Really, while people are drafting Wickman and Justin Speier (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6015')) and Jose Valverde (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7151')), the fact remains that if Urbina pitches well this season, but only gets 10 saves, he might be more valuable than a few closers anyway. Does anyone really think Jeremy Affeldt (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6883')) will save 30 games?
More A's: Posted 5:41 p.m. ET, Tuesday, Feb. 22
Good to see people reading, and responding to the earlier post about A's pitchers.
From Greg in Sacramento: "Hey Eric, with regards to Billy Beane and the A's, it's OK to question his brilliance, but the fact remains he is rarely wrong in his assessment of talent (Arthur Rhodes (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4736')) being the one glaring miss). He has done a fantastic job of bringing in (and up) great young talent despite his 'finacial restrictions.' I do think you are right that people assume that because Beane trades for them that they will be superstars, but most people forget that one of the main reasons Beane trades for a players is the fact that they are cheap. Sure, they are good, but from a fantasy perspective, they are only better than most players who are in that salary range (in real life). No one tries to say that Danny Haren (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7172')) and Dan Meyer (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7426')) are better than Tim Hudson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6245')) and Mark Mulder (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6393')), but they are probably better than most players at their current salaries. It just doesn't always translate into fantasy success.
And from Jason in North Bergen, NJ: "Eric, good points about the Oakland staff. I just wanted to add that the Rick Peterson factor could come into play here as well. Perhaps, he (the former A's pitching coach) is the reason Barry Zito (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6394')) had success all those years and now is having trouble regaining his form. Which leads me to this question...if you agree, do you believe having Rick Peterson on the Mets boosts the value of Victor Zambrano (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6752')) and Kris Benson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6167'))? Both are really not good pitchers, but there seems to be inflated hope they can flourish under Peterson's tutelage."
On Greg's points, you are certainly correct, that the reason Beane needs to do things like this is because he is under serious financial restraint, but it still doesn't mean Haren's worth it. If the Juan Cruz (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6783')) acquisition pans out, since it hasn't in previous stops, do we say that happened because it's Oakland? On Jason's statement, Peterson could be a major factor there. Few fantasy owners ever look at pitching coaches as a possible reasoning for success. Look at Philly, where that entire staff hated Joe Kerrigan last season, thus an explanation for underachievement. Maybe Brett Myers (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6864')) will like Rich Dubee so much that he'll find success. By the way, wouldn't it be great if the Phillies signed Jung Bong and let Dubee teach him?
I don't know if Peterson can make Benson or Zambrano better. People don't discuss Peterson the same way they do rockin' Leo Mazzone, but it could be true. Each pitcher has great stuff, but Benson has been so average, I wonder if he can take that next step. Zambrano either walks or strikes out everyone. The Mets dealt for him based on Peterson's recommendation that he can fix his flaws. I think he has a better shot for big success, due to the fact his stuff is so filthy. I'd call both Zambrano and Benson relative sleepers, guys who should win 12 games at least, keep their numbers respectable. Excellent point, Greg, let's see what Peterson can do.
Later in the week this conversation on potentially overrated A's starts looks at the Braves. Remember Pete Smith? David Nied? I do!
A's pitchers: Posted 12:12 p.m. ET, Tuesday, Feb. 22
Is it me, or does everyone just assume Billy Beane is a genius? OK, there was a book about how he views stats. Great. I view stats. You view stats. Heck, the Devil Rays probably view stats. Beane knows his stuff, but why is he considered smarter than everyone else? I don't mean to rip on Beane or the Athletics, but I think we're seeing in this offseason that players' values are getting wrongly adjusted/inflated because they have become an Oakland pitcher.
This past offseason, the A's dumped two thirds of the vaunted Big Three pitchers off, getting back some young pitchers that may or may not be as good as we think. A year ago, Danny Haren (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7172')) looked like a fine prospect. But BECAUSE the A's traded for him, now Haren has become a better pitcher, a supposed lock for stardom? Dan Meyer (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7426'))? Fine prospect back with Atlanta, but only 61 innings above Double-A, so let's hold off on anointing him. Juan Cruz (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6783'))? C'mon, hasn't everyone taken a shot on him? The A's have had a nice stretch of winning games and sending pitching prospects to the majors, but it still didn't result in a World Series. Isn't it possible the Hudson-Zito-Mulder run was not because of the A's knowing more than everyone else, but because they just happened to have three good pitchers?
Rich Harden (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7180')) is the best example of this. True, his minor league stats do give the impression he's a future star, and I do think he gets there eventually. He has nasty stuff that he still has trouble controlling, but he can throw 97 MPH consistently. He has a great strikeout rate, and he did show improvement after the break last season, slicing that ERA down to the 3 range. But if Harden was on the Brewers right now, would he be regarded the way he is now? It's because he's an Athletic that baseball observers - fantasy and not - just assume he'll break on through and become an ace, just like the pitchers before him. Frankly, his second half projects as a harbinger of nice things, but there are those who worry that he's thrown way too many pitches and has been overworked, and a shoulder injury might be coming soon. I ranked him 21st among starters in January rankings, but I think that's too high. If push comes to shove, I would take Beckett, Clemens and Maddux first.
It's smarter to judge Harden and these other pitchers on accomplishments and expected performance rather than on the reputation of a Moneyball GM and former A's pitchers. I love Hudson this season, even though he's out of Oakland, maybe because he is. Mulder scares me a bit, even though he's in St. Louis. The guy got pounded after the break last year, and for a guy who was dominant the year before, that normally means there's a hidden injury. But don't assume that Oakland dealt Mulder because they knew something that other teams didn't. If any of the Big Three should have been moved, it wouldn't have been those guys, it would have been Barry Zito (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6394')). Check out his progression the last three seasons. And he's still an Athletic, and also no lock to bounce back to 20-win status.
The Cardinals were desperate for pitching in the playoffs, what with Chris Carpenter (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5771')) out. But still Haren didn't crack the rotation; he was a long reliever who barely pitched. His minor league numbers have been OK, but look at his 21 starts with Memphis last season. It was the first time his strikeout rate became notable (150 Ks, 128 innings), but Haren was also very hittable, a recurring theme for him. He allowed 19 homers, and more hits than innings, making for a high ERA of 4.15. In 14 starts with the Cardinals in 2003, he looked overmatched, extremely hittable (84 hits, 73 innings), high WHIP (1.46). Bottom line is, a year ago Haren was not considered special, not a top prospect, he was considered a future fourth or fifth starter, maybe even a middle man. But because the A's dealt for him, people think he can win 15 games. He could, I suppose, but I don't think that for now. I think I see John Lackey (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6953')). Like Lackey, I think Haren could be a special pitcher, but my point is we cannot assume that's the case.
The A's could be in for a fall this season, so be careful not to overrate their players just because they are their players. Not only can't we be sure Zito will bounce back, but Harden needs to harness that stuff. Haren might just be an innings eater, and Adrian Beltre (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6039')) can't wait to face him five times this year. Octavio Dotel (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6111')) is being discussed in trade talks not only because the A's have Huston Street seemingly ready, but because the A's realize what the Mets and Astros have learned, that just because you're a hard thrower doesn't mean you can close games. Joe Blanton (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7461')), only two years out of college, and a focus of Moneyball, has been moved up the system very quickly, but the A's need him in the rotation. I think he's as good as Harden, and not just because it's the A's, because he's a good pitcher.
I could be wrong. But so could Beane.
Notes, Greer, etc.: Posted 5:16 p.m. ET, Monday, Feb. 21
Some interesting notes came from the weekend, here are some thoughts:
<LI>White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen had some comments about his lineup, and they seem a bit odd. Japanese import Tadahito Iguchi (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7510')) is not being thought of as a top-of-the-order option, at least initially. This says a lot. Iguchi can run, has pop, and would appear to be a decent No. 2 hitter, but the Sox have him slated to hit ninth. Scott Podsednik (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6489')) and Juan Uribe (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6698')) appear to be the table-setters. With Uribe's power, one would think he could bat fifth or sixth, no? Also, I like this quote: "I worry a little bit that when you play center field like Aaron, you've got a good chance to get hurt." That was Ozzie's answer as to why Aaron Rowand (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6742')) will play left, and Podsednik will patrol center. Doesn't that make it seem like Guillen doesn't care if Podsednik gets hurt? The White Sox can do a lot of things with this lineup, and I want to see where Rowand ends up. Also, will Willie Harris (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6798')) play at all? Maybe this second base job really is up in the air. And I'm telling you, if Frank Thomas (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4527')) is healthy, he will hit. I wouldn't bother with current DH Carl Everett (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5073')).
<LI>How many players have had their career change as much as Josh Phelps (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6494'))? He was Toronto's DH and middle of the order threat only three springs ago, and everyone thought Carlos Delgado (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5178')) would get dealt and Phelps would play first and hit 30 homers a year for a decade. That was heading into 2003. Phelps hit only 20 homers that year, played poorly in 2004, got dumped on Cleveland, and then they dumped him on Tampa Bay. Anyway, now he's projected to be the everyday DH in Tampa Bay and hit cleanup, after Aubrey Huff (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6545'))? Wow. Sleeper alert? Or will he disappoint again?
<LI>Brewers GM Doug Melvin commented on stud prospect Rickie Weeks (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7213')), and it's not good if you've got Weeks in a keeper league. Melvin implied that Weeks wouldn't be a midseason callup, giving us the impression he's going to spend the year in the minors, making Junior Spivey (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6384')) a nice sleeper if he stays healthy. He was doing well last year before getting hurt.
<LI>If your arm's hurting in February, it's not a good sign. Baltimore reliever Jorge Julio (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6709')) will need an MRI this week for a sore forearm that bothered him in the winter league. You've got to think B.J. Ryan (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6294'))'s safe as the Orioles' closer. But at least Julio doesn't need to visit ...
<LI>... Dr. James Andrews in Alabama. I'm sure this Dr. J is a nice man, but when a pitcher goes to see him, it's not to swap college stories or compare political beliefs. Toronto's Ted Lilly (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6223')) has discomfort in his throwing shoulder, and said "he stopped in to see Andrews on his way to camp." You know, like how you stop for gas on the way home from work. Watch this situation; Lilly struck out 168 batters last season, a relatively forgotten and underrated total.
<LI>Check out Justin Morneau (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7063'))'s offseason: appendicitis, chicken pox and a lung infection that led to pneumonia. So, how is your winter going?
<LI>Haven't I picked on the Devil Rays enough? Now comes word that the opening day starter might be ... Hideo Nomo (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5375'))! Yes, the Hideous one and his 8.25 ERA and 1.750 WHIP could face Toronto's Roy Halladay (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6134')) on opening day. Of course, Nomo needs to make the team first. If not him, it could be Denny Neagle (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4709')), coming off Tommy John surgery and a rather embarrassing ... um, off-field incident. OK, let's just say it. It was solicitation of a prostitute. What, and you're perfect? Anyway, I can't figure out why a pair of washed-up 36-year-old pitchers with horrific stats are even in the Devil Rays camp. Why would they start opening day, assuming they make the team? How about rewarding one of the kids, like Dewon Brazelton (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6786')) or Mark Hendrickson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6978')), maybe Scott Kazmir (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7292')). Man, this team is horrific. Run, Carl Crawford (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6870')), run, all the way to another team.
And one from the mailbag, from Daniel in Providence, RI: "Eric, regarding your comment about steroids not affecting your drafting behavior, are you going to draft Pudge Rodriguez now that he reported to camp 22 pounds lighter than last year? Either he's developed an easting disorder, or he quit the Juice. Draft at your peril."
Daniel, here's my comment. As a baseball fan and fantasy informant, I don't want to look at every player who lost weight and start accusing them. Maybe one has to be living in a fantasy world to think that players in good shape will perform no matter what. I just don't think we're going to see a major fallout from all the steroid controversy on the field. I hope.
Soriano, Hollandsworth: Posted 5:47 p.m. ET, Wednesday, Feb. 23
Let's check the mailbox. No comments on the Urbina section from earlier, but there have been some other thoughts.
From BK in Wilmington, NC: "Hi Eric, I'm baffled to see Alfonso Soriano (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6154')) ranked as low as he is in every draft projection. I consider him to be a top 5 player overall. You can't look past 2002 and 2003, where his numbers were as good as Carlos Beltran (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6132'))'s. He also plays at a weaker position. He's still a 30-25 player. What do you think?"
Well, there's a reason Soriano's projections have lessened, and more people than not think that 2004 is not a fluke. I'll explain. As a Yankee, Soriano wasn't hitting in the middle of the order, wasn't expected to be a run producer. In 2003 with the Yanks, Soriano finished at 38-91-35. Incredible stats for any position, but this guy plays second base! So he WAS Carlos Beltran, but at an impossible position. Anyway, all but 55 of those Soriano at-bats came in the leadoff spot. Players run more hitting first. It's documented. In many cases, players are more relaxed. There's nobody on base, they lead off many innings, pitchers attack them differently. In 2002, Soriano had all but 17 of his 696 at-bats leading off. I think this is a big reason why Soriano's numbers changed this season. That said, I fully expect his power stats to rise again, for even he admits that he began 2004 out of whack because of the trade. How would you feel leaving a perennial World Series team for a place even the best player in the game couldn't succeed. There was pressure on him for the first time, coming off his poor performance in the 2003 playoffs, and being traded for Alex Rodriguez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5275')). With the Rangers, Soriano hit third in 79.7 percent of his many at-bats, and stole only 11 bases there.
Bottom line is, Soriano remains a fantastic fantasy player, a top 10 guy, possibly as high as five in some leagues, especially due to the position he plays (who would you draft second at 2B? Not so easy, is it?) but also because he will steal some bases. But I don't think Soriano is a 30-30 threat anymore. I could be wrong, but playing for Texas, a team that had All-Stars at each infield position, Soriano won't run as much. I do see the power rising, though, and predict a 35-110 season, but steals in the 15-20 range. Is it worth Beltran, who plays a common position and steals more bases? Hard to tell, but your point is a valid one since you're not expecting 40-40.
And this from Drew in Avila, Ind., who comments on the Todd Hollandsworth (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5301')) section of this week's Hot/Not (http://games.espn.go.com/content/flb/2005/story?id=1998057). "Eric, love all your articles. In this case, I think you may have a typo or something. As someone who watched all 162 Cubs games last year, Todd Hollandsworth is not going to approach 3 steals, let alone 20. I think when you made your comment that he would be a darkhorse for 20-20, you must have meant 20-80 (HR, RBI)? Hollandsworth attempted two steals last year, and both were on fluke plays. I just know how excited every reader gets when they see "20-20" or "30-30", and I don't want anyone to be fooled. What if we combine the outfield platoon of Hollandsworth and Hairston? Then we're looking at 20-20 no question about it."
Good point, except it wasn't a typo. Hollandsworth did not run last season, but he does have some track record of running, and I assumed that as a full-time player, he'd go back to it. I mean, how could he run last year, when he ended up making so few starts. Hollandsworth had only 132 at-bats not as a pinch hitter, and he hit fifth in 91 of them. Maybe 20 steals is a little strong, but this guy did swipe 21 bases as a rookie, and 18 bags in 2000. With his knee problems, I admit 20 is too much to ask for, so I'll revise to 20-10. Still potential there, though personally I'd prefer to avoid him in drafts.
Urbina's Deal: Posted 1:13 p.m. ET, Wednesday, Feb. 23
If you owned Ugueth Urbina (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5385')) last year, you couldn't be pleased with what happened in September. And if you own him in a keeper league, what the Tigers did this offseason didn't make you smile, either.
Sometimes real life makes fantasy irrelevant, like in Urbina's case, with his mother being kidnapped. I can't pretend to know what he went through, and nothing I write here means I'm not sympathetic. Let's separate that from fantasy baseball. What I do know is that Urbina went from a middle-of-the-road closer to setup man through no fault of his own. What does it all mean for this season? Well, that real-life story hasn't been written yet.
Urbina saved 21 games last season for the Tigers, in five months of work. (Remember, he didn't pitch in September.) His ERA was high (4.50), as was his WHIP (1.30), but blame the walks. Urbina was unhittable, allowing opponents a .194 average, divided almost evenly between left-handed batters and righties. Basically, he got lit because he was his own worst enemy. But he was also on his way to 30 saves, making him a borderline top-20 closer.
OK, so the guy can still pitch. Then why did Detroit sign another closer, one only marginally better (and older) statistically, to a two-year deal worth $12 million? Troy Percival (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5315')) is a fine closer, but if Urbina was ranked 20th last year, what was Percival, 15th? You see the point.
So what could happen to Urbina going forward? Well, I do see potential for good things here. First, let's say Urbina's mindset is right, that mentally he has recovered from the family ordeal and pitches well. Every season there are at least 10 middle relievers who put up terrific numbers. Urbina has set up before, back with Florida, and was terrific. In theory, he's Detroit's eighth-inning guy, but we know Percival hits the DL every year, so Urbina should get some save opps. I'm assuming that Urbina could get his ERA down to his normal 3 range, remain a factor in strikeouts, and get up to 10 saves. That's if he stays. The other good thing that could happen is Urbina could be traded. He's been the subject of trade talks. Today we hear that the Mets offered up Mike Cameron (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5492')) for Urbina. Maybe it's not true, but it's interesting. Would Urbina close over Braden Looper (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5966'))? He certainly could. A rumor I haven't heard is Urbina to the Cubs. They have no clear closer. They just cleared salary in the Kyle Farnsworth (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6210')) dump job, pretty much the same salary Urbina makes. Of course, Farnsworth went TO Detroit, so why wasn't Urbina in the deal? Hmmm. Other teams that could look at Urbina as a closer are Colorado, with no great options among the choices, Baltimore now that the only option is lefty B.J. Ryan (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6294')), and possibly Arizona, the White Sox, Cleveland, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Seattle and Toronto. Yes, these teams have closers, but would you feel safe with Bob Wickman (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4919')) or Mike Adams (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7332')) as your closer? Just throwing it out there.
What does this all mean for your draft, if it's today? Well, I would draft Urbina very late, assume he's a quality middle reliever in the Tom Gordon (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4279')) mold, and hope he becomes a closer. Really, while people are drafting Wickman and Justin Speier (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6015')) and Jose Valverde (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7151')), the fact remains that if Urbina pitches well this season, but only gets 10 saves, he might be more valuable than a few closers anyway. Does anyone really think Jeremy Affeldt (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6883')) will save 30 games?
More A's: Posted 5:41 p.m. ET, Tuesday, Feb. 22
Good to see people reading, and responding to the earlier post about A's pitchers.
From Greg in Sacramento: "Hey Eric, with regards to Billy Beane and the A's, it's OK to question his brilliance, but the fact remains he is rarely wrong in his assessment of talent (Arthur Rhodes (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4736')) being the one glaring miss). He has done a fantastic job of bringing in (and up) great young talent despite his 'finacial restrictions.' I do think you are right that people assume that because Beane trades for them that they will be superstars, but most people forget that one of the main reasons Beane trades for a players is the fact that they are cheap. Sure, they are good, but from a fantasy perspective, they are only better than most players who are in that salary range (in real life). No one tries to say that Danny Haren (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7172')) and Dan Meyer (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7426')) are better than Tim Hudson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6245')) and Mark Mulder (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6393')), but they are probably better than most players at their current salaries. It just doesn't always translate into fantasy success.
And from Jason in North Bergen, NJ: "Eric, good points about the Oakland staff. I just wanted to add that the Rick Peterson factor could come into play here as well. Perhaps, he (the former A's pitching coach) is the reason Barry Zito (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6394')) had success all those years and now is having trouble regaining his form. Which leads me to this question...if you agree, do you believe having Rick Peterson on the Mets boosts the value of Victor Zambrano (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6752')) and Kris Benson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6167'))? Both are really not good pitchers, but there seems to be inflated hope they can flourish under Peterson's tutelage."
On Greg's points, you are certainly correct, that the reason Beane needs to do things like this is because he is under serious financial restraint, but it still doesn't mean Haren's worth it. If the Juan Cruz (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6783')) acquisition pans out, since it hasn't in previous stops, do we say that happened because it's Oakland? On Jason's statement, Peterson could be a major factor there. Few fantasy owners ever look at pitching coaches as a possible reasoning for success. Look at Philly, where that entire staff hated Joe Kerrigan last season, thus an explanation for underachievement. Maybe Brett Myers (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6864')) will like Rich Dubee so much that he'll find success. By the way, wouldn't it be great if the Phillies signed Jung Bong and let Dubee teach him?
I don't know if Peterson can make Benson or Zambrano better. People don't discuss Peterson the same way they do rockin' Leo Mazzone, but it could be true. Each pitcher has great stuff, but Benson has been so average, I wonder if he can take that next step. Zambrano either walks or strikes out everyone. The Mets dealt for him based on Peterson's recommendation that he can fix his flaws. I think he has a better shot for big success, due to the fact his stuff is so filthy. I'd call both Zambrano and Benson relative sleepers, guys who should win 12 games at least, keep their numbers respectable. Excellent point, Greg, let's see what Peterson can do.
Later in the week this conversation on potentially overrated A's starts looks at the Braves. Remember Pete Smith? David Nied? I do!
A's pitchers: Posted 12:12 p.m. ET, Tuesday, Feb. 22
Is it me, or does everyone just assume Billy Beane is a genius? OK, there was a book about how he views stats. Great. I view stats. You view stats. Heck, the Devil Rays probably view stats. Beane knows his stuff, but why is he considered smarter than everyone else? I don't mean to rip on Beane or the Athletics, but I think we're seeing in this offseason that players' values are getting wrongly adjusted/inflated because they have become an Oakland pitcher.
This past offseason, the A's dumped two thirds of the vaunted Big Three pitchers off, getting back some young pitchers that may or may not be as good as we think. A year ago, Danny Haren (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7172')) looked like a fine prospect. But BECAUSE the A's traded for him, now Haren has become a better pitcher, a supposed lock for stardom? Dan Meyer (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7426'))? Fine prospect back with Atlanta, but only 61 innings above Double-A, so let's hold off on anointing him. Juan Cruz (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6783'))? C'mon, hasn't everyone taken a shot on him? The A's have had a nice stretch of winning games and sending pitching prospects to the majors, but it still didn't result in a World Series. Isn't it possible the Hudson-Zito-Mulder run was not because of the A's knowing more than everyone else, but because they just happened to have three good pitchers?
Rich Harden (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7180')) is the best example of this. True, his minor league stats do give the impression he's a future star, and I do think he gets there eventually. He has nasty stuff that he still has trouble controlling, but he can throw 97 MPH consistently. He has a great strikeout rate, and he did show improvement after the break last season, slicing that ERA down to the 3 range. But if Harden was on the Brewers right now, would he be regarded the way he is now? It's because he's an Athletic that baseball observers - fantasy and not - just assume he'll break on through and become an ace, just like the pitchers before him. Frankly, his second half projects as a harbinger of nice things, but there are those who worry that he's thrown way too many pitches and has been overworked, and a shoulder injury might be coming soon. I ranked him 21st among starters in January rankings, but I think that's too high. If push comes to shove, I would take Beckett, Clemens and Maddux first.
It's smarter to judge Harden and these other pitchers on accomplishments and expected performance rather than on the reputation of a Moneyball GM and former A's pitchers. I love Hudson this season, even though he's out of Oakland, maybe because he is. Mulder scares me a bit, even though he's in St. Louis. The guy got pounded after the break last year, and for a guy who was dominant the year before, that normally means there's a hidden injury. But don't assume that Oakland dealt Mulder because they knew something that other teams didn't. If any of the Big Three should have been moved, it wouldn't have been those guys, it would have been Barry Zito (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6394')). Check out his progression the last three seasons. And he's still an Athletic, and also no lock to bounce back to 20-win status.
The Cardinals were desperate for pitching in the playoffs, what with Chris Carpenter (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5771')) out. But still Haren didn't crack the rotation; he was a long reliever who barely pitched. His minor league numbers have been OK, but look at his 21 starts with Memphis last season. It was the first time his strikeout rate became notable (150 Ks, 128 innings), but Haren was also very hittable, a recurring theme for him. He allowed 19 homers, and more hits than innings, making for a high ERA of 4.15. In 14 starts with the Cardinals in 2003, he looked overmatched, extremely hittable (84 hits, 73 innings), high WHIP (1.46). Bottom line is, a year ago Haren was not considered special, not a top prospect, he was considered a future fourth or fifth starter, maybe even a middle man. But because the A's dealt for him, people think he can win 15 games. He could, I suppose, but I don't think that for now. I think I see John Lackey (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6953')). Like Lackey, I think Haren could be a special pitcher, but my point is we cannot assume that's the case.
The A's could be in for a fall this season, so be careful not to overrate their players just because they are their players. Not only can't we be sure Zito will bounce back, but Harden needs to harness that stuff. Haren might just be an innings eater, and Adrian Beltre (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6039')) can't wait to face him five times this year. Octavio Dotel (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6111')) is being discussed in trade talks not only because the A's have Huston Street seemingly ready, but because the A's realize what the Mets and Astros have learned, that just because you're a hard thrower doesn't mean you can close games. Joe Blanton (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7461')), only two years out of college, and a focus of Moneyball, has been moved up the system very quickly, but the A's need him in the rotation. I think he's as good as Harden, and not just because it's the A's, because he's a good pitcher.
I could be wrong. But so could Beane.
Notes, Greer, etc.: Posted 5:16 p.m. ET, Monday, Feb. 21
Some interesting notes came from the weekend, here are some thoughts:
<LI>White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen had some comments about his lineup, and they seem a bit odd. Japanese import Tadahito Iguchi (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7510')) is not being thought of as a top-of-the-order option, at least initially. This says a lot. Iguchi can run, has pop, and would appear to be a decent No. 2 hitter, but the Sox have him slated to hit ninth. Scott Podsednik (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6489')) and Juan Uribe (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6698')) appear to be the table-setters. With Uribe's power, one would think he could bat fifth or sixth, no? Also, I like this quote: "I worry a little bit that when you play center field like Aaron, you've got a good chance to get hurt." That was Ozzie's answer as to why Aaron Rowand (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6742')) will play left, and Podsednik will patrol center. Doesn't that make it seem like Guillen doesn't care if Podsednik gets hurt? The White Sox can do a lot of things with this lineup, and I want to see where Rowand ends up. Also, will Willie Harris (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6798')) play at all? Maybe this second base job really is up in the air. And I'm telling you, if Frank Thomas (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4527')) is healthy, he will hit. I wouldn't bother with current DH Carl Everett (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5073')).
<LI>How many players have had their career change as much as Josh Phelps (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6494'))? He was Toronto's DH and middle of the order threat only three springs ago, and everyone thought Carlos Delgado (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5178')) would get dealt and Phelps would play first and hit 30 homers a year for a decade. That was heading into 2003. Phelps hit only 20 homers that year, played poorly in 2004, got dumped on Cleveland, and then they dumped him on Tampa Bay. Anyway, now he's projected to be the everyday DH in Tampa Bay and hit cleanup, after Aubrey Huff (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6545'))? Wow. Sleeper alert? Or will he disappoint again?
<LI>Brewers GM Doug Melvin commented on stud prospect Rickie Weeks (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7213')), and it's not good if you've got Weeks in a keeper league. Melvin implied that Weeks wouldn't be a midseason callup, giving us the impression he's going to spend the year in the minors, making Junior Spivey (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6384')) a nice sleeper if he stays healthy. He was doing well last year before getting hurt.
<LI>If your arm's hurting in February, it's not a good sign. Baltimore reliever Jorge Julio (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6709')) will need an MRI this week for a sore forearm that bothered him in the winter league. You've got to think B.J. Ryan (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6294'))'s safe as the Orioles' closer. But at least Julio doesn't need to visit ...
<LI>... Dr. James Andrews in Alabama. I'm sure this Dr. J is a nice man, but when a pitcher goes to see him, it's not to swap college stories or compare political beliefs. Toronto's Ted Lilly (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6223')) has discomfort in his throwing shoulder, and said "he stopped in to see Andrews on his way to camp." You know, like how you stop for gas on the way home from work. Watch this situation; Lilly struck out 168 batters last season, a relatively forgotten and underrated total.
<LI>Check out Justin Morneau (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7063'))'s offseason: appendicitis, chicken pox and a lung infection that led to pneumonia. So, how is your winter going?
<LI>Haven't I picked on the Devil Rays enough? Now comes word that the opening day starter might be ... Hideo Nomo (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5375'))! Yes, the Hideous one and his 8.25 ERA and 1.750 WHIP could face Toronto's Roy Halladay (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6134')) on opening day. Of course, Nomo needs to make the team first. If not him, it could be Denny Neagle (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4709')), coming off Tommy John surgery and a rather embarrassing ... um, off-field incident. OK, let's just say it. It was solicitation of a prostitute. What, and you're perfect? Anyway, I can't figure out why a pair of washed-up 36-year-old pitchers with horrific stats are even in the Devil Rays camp. Why would they start opening day, assuming they make the team? How about rewarding one of the kids, like Dewon Brazelton (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6786')) or Mark Hendrickson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6978')), maybe Scott Kazmir (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7292')). Man, this team is horrific. Run, Carl Crawford (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6870')), run, all the way to another team.
And one from the mailbag, from Daniel in Providence, RI: "Eric, regarding your comment about steroids not affecting your drafting behavior, are you going to draft Pudge Rodriguez now that he reported to camp 22 pounds lighter than last year? Either he's developed an easting disorder, or he quit the Juice. Draft at your peril."
Daniel, here's my comment. As a baseball fan and fantasy informant, I don't want to look at every player who lost weight and start accusing them. Maybe one has to be living in a fantasy world to think that players in good shape will perform no matter what. I just don't think we're going to see a major fallout from all the steroid controversy on the field. I hope.