sportznut
02-24-2005, 01:22 AM
Cockcroft: Ten AL players to watch
Tuesday, February 22, 2005
Modified: Tuesday, February 22, 2005
Spring training is officially underway and exhibition games begin late next week, and it's important for fantasy owners to know what to look for in spring stats. I'm one of those who will advise you to, for the most part, throw out the entire batch of spring numbers. They're not that relevant, since about half of them are usually accrued against low minor leaguers who rank among the early cuts. And in the case of veterans, most need only 25 at-bats or 10 innings to get up to speed, so they often use the rest of the time to experiment.
But there are a few instances where the spring totals make all the difference in evaluating a player's draft-day price tag. Taking a look at the American League first, here are 10 players whose spring numbers should have the most relevance to determining their draft value:
10. Ivan Rodriguez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4680')): His inclusion on this list could be construed as the first warning sign that his value might be on the decline. Pudge, one of the players called out for steroid use in Jose Canseco (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3730'))'s book, reported to spring training 22 pounds below his 2004 listed weight. Neither fact is nearly enough to convict Rodriguez of anything, but one has to be concerned when you also take into account that he's 33 years old, has 1,689 games behind the plate under his belt, and batted just .281 from July 1 onward. So why are we all proclaiming Pudge a no-brainer pick at $25? The sudden weight loss raises an immediate red flag, and it suddenly makes a veteran's spring numbers much more relevant than they might have been in the past. For comparison's sake, Jason Giambi (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5386')), who reported to 2004 spring training looking noticeably thinner, batted just .231 with two homers in 39 at-bats during the exhibition season.
9. Kevin Brown (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3979')): The Yankees are not a patient baseball team, and they're hardly going to stand by Brown for long if he doesn't enjoy a strong spring. He nearly ended his season when he punched a wall last September, then had a disastrous 8.68 ERA, 2.250 WHIP and .415 opponents' batting average in three postseason starts. Rumors swirled that the Yankees would dump Brown during the offseason, but they found no takers for the 39-year-old's bloated contract. Fortunately, that contract also probably assures Brown stays in New York and in the rotation, so long as he's healthy and pitching respectably. His fantasy value wouldn't be any higher elsewhere, and we should get the answers we need regarding his ability in March.
8. Bronson Arroyo (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6498')): It's a funny thing what a bad postseason will do to you; Arroyo registered a 7.82 ERA, 1.579 WHIP and .288 opponents' batting average in six appearances last October, and now the fantasy baseball world is wondering whether he'll even begin the year in the Boston rotation. Folks, October baseball is a very different thing from the game in May, June or July, and let's not forget that Arroyo had a 3.86 ERA, 1.184 WHIP and .242 opponents' average in 38 regular-season appearances in 2003-04. Regardless of whether he wins an official rotation spot or not, I'd watch Arroyo's numbers. A good spring either lands him a starting job, or it makes him a wise sleeper selection as a reliever, especially in AL-only leagues.
7. Jeremy Reed (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7284')): I'm one of the biggest supporters of the notion that Reed should be the best all-around fantasy rookie in 2005, though that's presuming he wins the everyday center field job and isn't tucked away in the eighth or ninth spot in the batting order. Not enough has been said about Reed's ability as a hitter and baserunner; he has a .330 batting average and 91 stolen bases in 340 games as a professional, and has an incredible 147 walks compared to just 120 strikeouts in 1,241 at-bats. I find it surprising he still has to prove he can start for the Mariners after hitting .397 in an 18-game trial, but that's his chore this spring. Reed should be up to the task, and a good exhibition season -- say, .300-plus, good walk/strikeout rate, handful of steals -- will translate into a .290-15-70-20 year for a dirt-cheap price.
6. Jeremy Bonderman (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7106')): Sooner or later, Bonderman is going to break out in a major way, racking up a surprisingly good season and perhaps even earning some Cy Young votes. Will it be 2005? The spring might provide us with some hints. Bonderman finished last year with a 5-3 record, 2.33 ERA, 1.052 WHIP and 60 strikeouts in 58 innings in his final eight starts, and a continuation of that level of dominance during the exhibition games will surely push him high on many draft boards. If there's going to be a "Ben Sheets (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6618')) of 2005," I think Bonderman's it.
5. Dallas McPherson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7353')): The biggest high-risk, high-reward candidate of this year's rookie class, McPherson could be as dominating a first-year slugger as Mark McGwire (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3866')) (49 homers in 1987) or as disappointing a rookie as Russ Branyan, depending on how you evaluate his .310-43-132-13-112 totals at three levels last season. (Of course, that's taking things to the extremes.) Here's the concern: McPherson batted just .204 in 19 major-league games, counting the postseason, and struck out a combined 186 times at all levels. I'd monitor his walks and strikeouts per at-bat, particularly, since he's going to need to do better than one walk per 9.20 at-bats and one K per 3.02 to become the 30-homer, 100-RBI player some people are forecasting.
4. Magglio Ordonez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5889')): One of the more obvious players to watch this spring, Ordonez faces two challenges; adapt to his new surroundings with the Tigers and prove he's over the knee operation that limited him to 52 games last season. Ordonez's injury, bone marrow edema in his left knee, is a rare one, and unique injuries can be rather disconcerting because of their unpredictable nature. More disturbing is his .259 average, one homer and 13 RBI in 24 career games in Comerica Park. Ordonez is going to need a strong spring to prove his health and ensure he can overcome those totals in Detroit, because his bat entirely determines his value these days. Don't expect him to steal bases coming off such a serious knee problem.
3. Tadahito Iguchi: The favorite question of many fantasy owners the past couple seasons is "Will (insert this year's biggest Japanese import) be more like Ichiro Suzuki (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6615')) or So Taguchi (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6843'))?" (Of course, they're referring to the Taguchi who spent most of 2002-03 in the minors, not the one who hit .291 in limited at-bats last year.) Iguchi is this year's top hitter to migrate from the East, and he'll be comparably tough to project based on the differences in Japanese ball. Let's scale the numbers of Ichiro, Hideki Matsui (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7042')) and Kazuo Matsui (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7250')), the three most recent big-name imports, to 500 at-bats. In each of their final years in Japan, they combined to average .337-29-80-11-88 totals; in their first years in the States, their numbers dropped to .307-8-56-18-69. Though those stats are somewhat arbitrary -- Ichiro skews them a lot -- they do provide an example of the difference in the two leagues, especially in the power categories. Iguchi has two things to do this spring; win the starting second base job and prove he belongs in the No. 2 hole. His value could range anywhere from low-priced reserve to top-five AL second baseman.
2. Jason Giambi: There might not be a player around with a bigger range of statistical projections for 2005 than Giambi, whose numbers are nearly impossible to forecast because of the dreaded steroid talk. Everyone seems to be assuming that he's using the juice, and figuring that he's probably not much better a hitter than his 2004 totals. But presuming Giambi gets 450 at-bats, is he really just the .209-20-68 hitter that was his rate last year, the .216-25-69 hitter he has been since the 2003 All-Star break, or the .269-31-89 hitter he has been the past three years? Or was last year a mirage, and he's really as good as his .297 career average? Only the spring stats know for sure. Giambi will be under everyone's microscope this spring -- not just mine -- and I think those totals are going to tell us a lot. The pressure on him will only increase in New York, so I wouldn't count on him hitting much better there than he does in Tampa in March.
1. Joe Mauer (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7062')): It's not that I'm worried about his bat. Actually, Mauer is one of the few 21-and-under hitters who doesn't worry me as a hitter; he has batted .302 or better at every stop in every year of his professional career, and if you scale those professional statistics to 450 at-bats, he has hit .329 with six homers, 70 RBI, 64 runs and an impressive 55 walks compared to just 47 strikeouts. No, what's most important regarding Mauer is how often you see the little "C" next to his name in the spring box scores. Knee surgery shouldn't take anything away from his hitting totals, but it's unclear how often Mauer will be able to stand and squat on a weekly basis. He'll be at a higher injury risk than players at other positions, but if he's able to catch around five games a week or all of the home games in the spring, he's going to become a huge breakout candidate.
Tuesday, February 22, 2005
Modified: Tuesday, February 22, 2005
Spring training is officially underway and exhibition games begin late next week, and it's important for fantasy owners to know what to look for in spring stats. I'm one of those who will advise you to, for the most part, throw out the entire batch of spring numbers. They're not that relevant, since about half of them are usually accrued against low minor leaguers who rank among the early cuts. And in the case of veterans, most need only 25 at-bats or 10 innings to get up to speed, so they often use the rest of the time to experiment.
But there are a few instances where the spring totals make all the difference in evaluating a player's draft-day price tag. Taking a look at the American League first, here are 10 players whose spring numbers should have the most relevance to determining their draft value:
10. Ivan Rodriguez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4680')): His inclusion on this list could be construed as the first warning sign that his value might be on the decline. Pudge, one of the players called out for steroid use in Jose Canseco (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3730'))'s book, reported to spring training 22 pounds below his 2004 listed weight. Neither fact is nearly enough to convict Rodriguez of anything, but one has to be concerned when you also take into account that he's 33 years old, has 1,689 games behind the plate under his belt, and batted just .281 from July 1 onward. So why are we all proclaiming Pudge a no-brainer pick at $25? The sudden weight loss raises an immediate red flag, and it suddenly makes a veteran's spring numbers much more relevant than they might have been in the past. For comparison's sake, Jason Giambi (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5386')), who reported to 2004 spring training looking noticeably thinner, batted just .231 with two homers in 39 at-bats during the exhibition season.
9. Kevin Brown (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3979')): The Yankees are not a patient baseball team, and they're hardly going to stand by Brown for long if he doesn't enjoy a strong spring. He nearly ended his season when he punched a wall last September, then had a disastrous 8.68 ERA, 2.250 WHIP and .415 opponents' batting average in three postseason starts. Rumors swirled that the Yankees would dump Brown during the offseason, but they found no takers for the 39-year-old's bloated contract. Fortunately, that contract also probably assures Brown stays in New York and in the rotation, so long as he's healthy and pitching respectably. His fantasy value wouldn't be any higher elsewhere, and we should get the answers we need regarding his ability in March.
8. Bronson Arroyo (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6498')): It's a funny thing what a bad postseason will do to you; Arroyo registered a 7.82 ERA, 1.579 WHIP and .288 opponents' batting average in six appearances last October, and now the fantasy baseball world is wondering whether he'll even begin the year in the Boston rotation. Folks, October baseball is a very different thing from the game in May, June or July, and let's not forget that Arroyo had a 3.86 ERA, 1.184 WHIP and .242 opponents' average in 38 regular-season appearances in 2003-04. Regardless of whether he wins an official rotation spot or not, I'd watch Arroyo's numbers. A good spring either lands him a starting job, or it makes him a wise sleeper selection as a reliever, especially in AL-only leagues.
7. Jeremy Reed (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7284')): I'm one of the biggest supporters of the notion that Reed should be the best all-around fantasy rookie in 2005, though that's presuming he wins the everyday center field job and isn't tucked away in the eighth or ninth spot in the batting order. Not enough has been said about Reed's ability as a hitter and baserunner; he has a .330 batting average and 91 stolen bases in 340 games as a professional, and has an incredible 147 walks compared to just 120 strikeouts in 1,241 at-bats. I find it surprising he still has to prove he can start for the Mariners after hitting .397 in an 18-game trial, but that's his chore this spring. Reed should be up to the task, and a good exhibition season -- say, .300-plus, good walk/strikeout rate, handful of steals -- will translate into a .290-15-70-20 year for a dirt-cheap price.
6. Jeremy Bonderman (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7106')): Sooner or later, Bonderman is going to break out in a major way, racking up a surprisingly good season and perhaps even earning some Cy Young votes. Will it be 2005? The spring might provide us with some hints. Bonderman finished last year with a 5-3 record, 2.33 ERA, 1.052 WHIP and 60 strikeouts in 58 innings in his final eight starts, and a continuation of that level of dominance during the exhibition games will surely push him high on many draft boards. If there's going to be a "Ben Sheets (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6618')) of 2005," I think Bonderman's it.
5. Dallas McPherson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7353')): The biggest high-risk, high-reward candidate of this year's rookie class, McPherson could be as dominating a first-year slugger as Mark McGwire (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3866')) (49 homers in 1987) or as disappointing a rookie as Russ Branyan, depending on how you evaluate his .310-43-132-13-112 totals at three levels last season. (Of course, that's taking things to the extremes.) Here's the concern: McPherson batted just .204 in 19 major-league games, counting the postseason, and struck out a combined 186 times at all levels. I'd monitor his walks and strikeouts per at-bat, particularly, since he's going to need to do better than one walk per 9.20 at-bats and one K per 3.02 to become the 30-homer, 100-RBI player some people are forecasting.
4. Magglio Ordonez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5889')): One of the more obvious players to watch this spring, Ordonez faces two challenges; adapt to his new surroundings with the Tigers and prove he's over the knee operation that limited him to 52 games last season. Ordonez's injury, bone marrow edema in his left knee, is a rare one, and unique injuries can be rather disconcerting because of their unpredictable nature. More disturbing is his .259 average, one homer and 13 RBI in 24 career games in Comerica Park. Ordonez is going to need a strong spring to prove his health and ensure he can overcome those totals in Detroit, because his bat entirely determines his value these days. Don't expect him to steal bases coming off such a serious knee problem.
3. Tadahito Iguchi: The favorite question of many fantasy owners the past couple seasons is "Will (insert this year's biggest Japanese import) be more like Ichiro Suzuki (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6615')) or So Taguchi (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6843'))?" (Of course, they're referring to the Taguchi who spent most of 2002-03 in the minors, not the one who hit .291 in limited at-bats last year.) Iguchi is this year's top hitter to migrate from the East, and he'll be comparably tough to project based on the differences in Japanese ball. Let's scale the numbers of Ichiro, Hideki Matsui (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7042')) and Kazuo Matsui (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7250')), the three most recent big-name imports, to 500 at-bats. In each of their final years in Japan, they combined to average .337-29-80-11-88 totals; in their first years in the States, their numbers dropped to .307-8-56-18-69. Though those stats are somewhat arbitrary -- Ichiro skews them a lot -- they do provide an example of the difference in the two leagues, especially in the power categories. Iguchi has two things to do this spring; win the starting second base job and prove he belongs in the No. 2 hole. His value could range anywhere from low-priced reserve to top-five AL second baseman.
2. Jason Giambi: There might not be a player around with a bigger range of statistical projections for 2005 than Giambi, whose numbers are nearly impossible to forecast because of the dreaded steroid talk. Everyone seems to be assuming that he's using the juice, and figuring that he's probably not much better a hitter than his 2004 totals. But presuming Giambi gets 450 at-bats, is he really just the .209-20-68 hitter that was his rate last year, the .216-25-69 hitter he has been since the 2003 All-Star break, or the .269-31-89 hitter he has been the past three years? Or was last year a mirage, and he's really as good as his .297 career average? Only the spring stats know for sure. Giambi will be under everyone's microscope this spring -- not just mine -- and I think those totals are going to tell us a lot. The pressure on him will only increase in New York, so I wouldn't count on him hitting much better there than he does in Tampa in March.
1. Joe Mauer (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7062')): It's not that I'm worried about his bat. Actually, Mauer is one of the few 21-and-under hitters who doesn't worry me as a hitter; he has batted .302 or better at every stop in every year of his professional career, and if you scale those professional statistics to 450 at-bats, he has hit .329 with six homers, 70 RBI, 64 runs and an impressive 55 walks compared to just 47 strikeouts. No, what's most important regarding Mauer is how often you see the little "C" next to his name in the spring box scores. Knee surgery shouldn't take anything away from his hitting totals, but it's unclear how often Mauer will be able to stand and squat on a weekly basis. He'll be at a higher injury risk than players at other positions, but if he's able to catch around five games a week or all of the home games in the spring, he's going to become a huge breakout candidate.