Reilly
02-20-2005, 04:30 AM
Besides the usual standbys at this position, we have some young players on the rise near the top of the list. Aubrey Huff, Mark Teixeira and Justin Morneau all made great strides last year and sit in our Top 10. On the flip side, Jeff Bagwell is starting to fade, and Jason Giambi is dropping precipitously. Finally, be aware that a few big names here are missing, because they didn't play enough games at first, and only qualify at DH - among those include Travis Hafner, Erubiel Durazo and Frank Thomas.
1. Albert Pujols, STL
Pujols will enter the 2005 season at age 25, meaning he has yet to hit his statistical prime, which sabermetricians postulate comes after age 27. That's a scary thought considering he set career highs with 46 home runs and 84 walks. A batter without weakness, Pujols lowered his strikeout total from 93 as a rookie to just 52 in 2004. With pitchers unable to stop him, health becomes an issue. He battled through plantar fasciitis in his left foot from August through the end of the season. He was hardly slowed, hitting .344 in September and .414 with six home runs in the postseason. Winter treatments should heal that problem right up, giving pitchers even more pause.
2. Todd Helton, COL
Helton is a fantasy god. He has hit over .315 for seven straight years, consistently surpasses 30 HR and 100 RBI, and has never missed more than ten games in a season. At 31, he's in the prime of a magnificent career that shows no signs of slowing down. If there is any concern about Helton, it's that his supporting cast this year will be weaker than ever before. He'll have little protection in the lineup aside from Preston Wilson.
3. Mark Teixeira, TEX
Teixeira has arrived. He was fortunate to just miss the required 15 days with a strained oblique in early April, but his monster July (.750 slugging, 13 HR in 100 AB) made up for lost time. There's no more discussion of moving him to the outfield to make room for Adrian Gonzalez, so he'll be a first baseman for the foreseeable future. And a damn good one at that.
4. Aubrey Huff, TB
Huff historically gets off to poor starts only to turn into a fantasy stud in the second half of the season. Part of the problem may be that the Rays have changed defensive positions on him in either March or April each of the last three seasons, so Lou Piniella promises to tell Huff in February what position he'll play and use him there every day in spring training. The Rocco Baldelli injury may complicate such best-laid plans, however. If his position isn't resolved early, consider planning to buy low on Huff in May or June and then reap the rewards in the summer because the big dawg can hit.
5. David Ortiz, BOS
Big Papi is the MVP of the Red Sox, both in the clubhouse and on the field. He proved his 2003 season was no fluke and will continue to thrive in Boston's lineup as their cleanup hitter.
6. Justin Morneau, MIN
Morneau will play first base every day for the Twins after the trade of Doug Mientkiewicz. The highly-touted hitting prospect didn't disappoint after taking over the starting job in August, hitting 17 home runs in the second half of the season. After struggling at the major league level in 2003, Morneau showed he's turned the corner and should take the next step to soon become one of the AL's best at first base. With solid power and plate discipline, Morneau looks like a good bet to become the first Twin since 1987 to hit more than 30 home runs and is one of this year's strongest upside plays.
7. Carlos Delgado, FLA
After a nasty rib cage injury early on, he was the Delgado of old after the All-Star break with a .305 average, 1.033 OPS, 22 HR, and 63 RBI. He's a safe bet to post another punchy season wherever he ends up in free agency.
8. Jim Thome, PHI
The big first baseman had another good year for the Phillies, further justifying their big investment in him. Thome tied for fifth in the NL in HR, for 12th in RBI and ranked eighth in walks. He hit 15 of his homers in June. Thome's numbers against lefthanders (.239) are a cause for concern and he didn't thrive (.243) in Citizens Bank Park. Thome was slowed in September by a bruised chest he sustained in a collision, but that isn't a concern for 2005.
9. Derrek Lee, CHI-N
After a slow start, Lee came around and finished with numbers very similar to his 2003. Forecasts of a 40 HR season after his release from Pro Player Stadium were off by a bit, but at age 29, it wouldn't surprise us if he fulfilled those expectations in 2005. Lee is also a good bet for double-digit steals, a nice bonus from your first baseman.
10. Brad Wilkerson, WAS
Wilkerson broke through big-time in the power department, racking up over 70 extra base hits and a career high in SLG. He's just entering his prime, so the best may be yet to come -- Ray Lankford with half the steals and better health is perhaps the obvious comparison.
11. Shawn Green, AZ
Green's home run total rebounded last season at the expense of his batting average, but his overall numbers were very similar to 2003 and continued a steady decline. He'll start in right field after an offseason trade to Arizona. His numbers should increase with the change of ballparks, but a return to his 40 HR days may be a stretch.
12. Travis Hafner, CLE
Hafner blossomed in a big way in 2004, exploding on the scene to rank second in the AL in OPS and ninth in RBIs. He had shown good power and discipline as a first baseman in the Texas system and broke through with the Indians while batting almost exclusively as a DH. Hafner rivaled Ichiro as the majors' best hitter on the road (1.072 OPS) and might have had even better numbers if not for bone chips in his right elbow, which necessitated surgery in September. Hafner could stand to improve against lefthanders (.244), but that may be nitpicking. His fantasy owners should enjoy the ride, but they'll have to do it using their DH spot in most leagues.
13. Sean Casey, CIN
This was Casey's best season since the 2000 season, and his healthiest since then. The 24 homers is about the upper extent of his power potential, but his batting average should remain that high as long as he's healthy.
14. Lyle Overbay, MIL
Overbay had a spectacular first half and an average second half in 2004. He finished with Those are good numbers for most players, but you usually want a little more from your first baseman. The conventional wisdom is that he is just holding the position until Prince Fielder is ready to make the jump to the majors, either late in 2005 or to start 2006. The Brewers may try to move him to the outfield when that happens but more likely they will trade him.
15. Carlos Pena, DET
Pena finally delivered on his power potential in 2004. He will almost assuredly hurt any team's average but his power numbers and remaining untapped potential mean he's worth keeping in mind on draft day.
16. Jeff Bagwell, HOU
Bagwell played through another season with a banged up shoulder and his production at the plate took a big hit. Bagwell hit just 27 home runs in 2004, his lowest such output since 1995. The All Star first baseman has vowed to change his "sitting down" approach at the plate for a more conventional upright style and it will be interesting as to how he'll adapt to that change in the upcoming season.
17. Richie Sexson, SEA
Sexson played in just 23 games last year before suffering a dislocated shoulder that required season-ending surgery. His health makes him a risk and Seattle's large field might eat up a few of his home runs, but he remains a significant fantasy play. Just make sure you have a strong backup.
18. Paul Konerko, CHI-A
Konerko shook off his 2003 slump and attacked the ball with a vengeance last year, setting new career highs in home runs, RBI, SLG and walks -- and strikeouts, of course, a by-product of his new approach. He's still in his prime (29 on Opening Day) and just so long as he doesn't slip back into back habits, he should enjoy the new 35+ HR level he's found.
19. Phil Nevin, SD
Last year was a typical Nevin season; he lost his temper and cursed profusely in front of a young fan which prompted a public apology, he ended up in a shouting match with general manager Kevin Towers over heated public comments about Petco Park's dimensions and the offseason again has him linked to more than a few trade rumors. The temper, production and rumor mill are all old hat for the a .301 average 53 doubles, and a .385 OBP. 34-year-old. Looking to put together a more defensive outfield, the Padres could be forced to deal the heart and soul of the team. Ryan Klesko is not suited to the ballpark but Nevin is the piece the team is able to move, which would allow a shift to first base for Rhino. But no matter where Nevin winds up, he should be good for 30 home runs and 100 RBI, provided the body holds up for 145 games.
20. Mike Sweeney, KC
This season is important for Sweeney, who once again had his season curtailed by a back injury. His games played have gone from 159 in 2000 to 106 in 2004. His numbers are also taking a hit as he is constantly headed to or coming off of the disabled list. When healthy, Sweeney is a powerful hitter with very few holes in his swing. Despite missing 56 games, he led the team with 22 home runs and 79 RBI.
21. Darin Erstad, ANA
The good news is Erstad posted his highest OPS since his monster year in 2000. The bad news is that OPS was .746. He's got a weak bat at an offensively critical position and at 31 is looking less and less like an asset and more like a liability.
22. Kevin Millar, BOS
Millar was nonexistent during the first half of 2004 as Cowboy Up became Pop Up. Red Sox manager Terry Francona's patience finally paid off when Millar went on a torrid July that set up a second half resurgence (.319/.408/.566) and enabled him to remain a regular in Boston's lineup. His power production dropped in 2004, but it merely reverted back to normal after an abnormally prodigious 2003. He's a streaky hitter and will frustrate even the most patient of fantasy owners, but should not hurt you at the corner infield position. He's a very big part of the clubhouse and will remain the team's everyday first baseman. The Red Sox have a very capable backup in Doug Mientkiewicz, but this will not be a platoon situation. One issue of note is that Francona will use Mientkiewicz as a late-inning defensive replacement when it makes sense for Boston to have its best defensive unit on the field. That could result in 50-75 less at-bats for Millar.
23. Ben Broussard, CLE
Broussard established himself as a big league hitter in 2004, but his hold on the first-base job with Cleveland will be short-lived. Michael Aubrey, the club's top hitting prospect, will be ready in 2006. Travis Hafner, the DH and the club's best hitter, also plays first. Broussard is a decent hitter and he will start 2005 as the Indians first baseman. But if he slumps or gets hurt he could be quickly forgotten.
24. Dmitri Young, DET
After an All-Star year in 2003, Young missed nearly a third of the 2004 season after breaking his leg in just the Tigers' second game. He still managed to assemble a decent campaign after returning, but never looked quite as good as he did in 2003 and was forced into the DH role because he wasn't mobile enough to play the field. His leg shouldn't give him any problems in 2005.
25. Craig Wilson, PIT
In his first season as a full-time player, Wilson led the Pirates in homers (29) and tied for the team lead in RBI with 82. The bonus here is that in most leagues Wilson qualified as a catcher. However, in 2004 he only appeared behind the plate in four games, starting one, so in most formats he has lost his eligibility at the position. The good news is that may not last long since Jason Kendall is gone and there is a solid chance that Wilson will be deployed at catcher enough to regain the coveted eligibility. Wilson is no whiz with any of the three gloves he carries (C, 1B, OF), but the Pirates will find ways to keep him in their lineup because they absolutely need the power he provides. With a little more patience at the plate – he whiffed 169 times, the third highest total in the majors – Wilson could improve on his .264 average, but the bottom line here is that the moment he qualifies as a catcher, his fantasy value will take a quantum leap forward.
26. Shea Hillenbrand, TOR
Hillenbrand enjoyed maybe his best season as a big leaguer in 2004. He spent most of the year at first base after Richie Sexson went down, but can still play third. The ballpark at Arizona really played to Hillenbrand's strengths as a hitter, so if he goes elsewhere, look at the park effects carefully.
27. Pedro Feliz, SF
Feliz appeared in a career-high 140 games and also set highs in HR, RBI and batting average in 2004. The Giants have committed to finding him a full-time role in 2005, but when the team exercised its contract option on J.T. Snow, that promise became uncertain. He's too good a player to ride the bench, however, so the Giants are bound to find him a regular spot somehow.
28. Nick Johnson, WAS
Johnson lived up to his injury-prone tag in 2004, registering his lowest AB total in three years. It's impossible to predict how many games he'll play, or what he'll do in them, so tread cautiously.
29. Adam LaRoche, ATL
LaRoche platooned with Julio Franco and had a disappointing start to his rookie season. He hit just .242 with 2 HR before separating his left shoulder in late May, missing a month. Once he returned he caught fire and hit .302 with 10 HR and a .952 OPS after the All-Star break. He should be in less of a platoon situation this season after his late-season surge and with Franco likely to decline at age 46. The jury is still out on his power potential and with the platoon situation taking away at-bats, he'll start the season as a second-tier first baseman. However, his strong second half shows he has potential to surprise.
30. Jeff Conine, FLA
Conine enters spring as the Marlins starting first baseman and has a real shot at being the worst everyday first baseman in the NL. Two offseason shoulder surgeries aren't going to make his 38-year-old bat any quicker.
31. Scott Hatteberg, OAK
Hatteberg improved on some rather ghastly 2003 numbers (.383 slugging anyone?) but even with the bump, a .787 OPS from an AL first baseman isn't helping a team struggling to score runs. He'll figure in the mix at 1B and DH again this season.
32. Rafael Palmeiro, BAL
Palmeiro's critics blamed his age and declining bat speed. He blamed inconsistencies in his approach to the plate, trying to overcompensate for exaggerated pull shifts. Any way you slice it, the 40-year-old's home 2004, ending an incredible streak of 10 consecutive non-strike years with at least 37 home runs and 104 RBI. The most surprising thing was that Palmeiro batted only .189 against lefties, against whom he had hit well in the past. The Orioles brought Palmeiro back to be their regular DH in 2005, though he'll likely sit against many southpaws. He should have a better batting average as a result.
33. Tino Martinez, NY-A
Martinez confounded the experts in 2004 by turning in perhaps his best season since he was on the '98 Yankees. He'll turn 37 this spring, however, and will be hard-pressed to match those numbers in 2005. Left-handers give him more trouble as time goes by, so a platoon situation might be best. However, he could win a sizable role with the Yankees with Jason Giambi's status unclear.
34. Josh Phelps, TB
The former Blue Jay prospect, who won Rookie of the Month both in August and September 2002, has seen his time cut as a DH ever since his rookie year. He has declined steadily the last two years, with both his power and his plate discipline taking a nosedive. The Indians designated him for assignment this offseason rather than offering him arbitration. Perhaps a good hitting coach can straighten him out, but time is getting short.
35. Ken Harvey, KC
Harvey took a .375 batting average into June and became the Royals' lone representative at the All-Star game. Shoulder problems and a bruised forearm gnawed at him in mid-June and sent him spiraling. He hit .235 in July, .254 in August and .205 in September as numerous aches and pains haunted him. Harvey's a chunky guy, which puts stress on his lower body. When healthy, Harvey is an All-Star caliber hitter capable of hitting 20-plus home runs and hitting over .350. Health, however, is a big issue and one he will have to overcome in 2005 to continue to be a major cog in the Royals' plans.
36. Jason Giambi, NY-A
Parasites? Tumors? The 2004 season was a nightmare for Giambi as he batted just .208 with 12 HR and it wasn't so hot for his fantasy owners either. He's a horrendous defensive player and should spend as much time as possible at DH this season. You're taking a run and RBI totals dropped off significantly in massive chance if you draft him; you could get 40 dingers, or you could get someone who'll spend months on the DL or who'll play himself out of town. Now one of the principal figures in the BALCO scandal, he may be run out of town before he gets a chance to play himself out. Buyer beware
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37. J.T. Snow, SF
Snow had to compete with Pedro Feliz and Damon Minor for time at first base after he returned from the knee surgery that kept him out a month, but it did him good. He made contact with the ball better than ever, though his power numbers remained similar to what they have been for the past three seasons. Snow has hit better than .280 just twice in his 13-year tenure, so fantasy owners ought to keep his career average of .267 in mind come next year's draft.
38. Matt Stairs, KC
Stairs can only be considered a luxury for the Royals. He'll turn 37 during spring and, defensively, is just above full-time designated hitter talent. With Mike Sweeney, Ken Harvey and Calvin Pickering clogging the DH and first base slots, Stairs' action will come in the corner outfield spots. If he hits well and/or if Aaron Guiel, Abraham Nunez and Terrence Long all show they can adequately play in the majors, Stairs is nice trade bait. How he hits will determine just how well the Royals spent the $1 million to sign him.
39. Hee Seop Choi, LA
Choi came to the Dodgers last season after being acquired in a deadline deal with the Marlins. He was expected to take over as the team's starting first baseman but struggled mightily and ended up playing only sporadically down the stretch. The Dodgers will likely end up spending money in other areas (third base and pitching) meaning Choi stands a chance to come out of spring training as the starter at first. He'll be worth grabbing in the late rounds of drafts since he still has potential given his command of the strike zone and power.
40. Julio Franco, ATL
Franco surprised by reaching 320 AB (thanks in part to a month missed by platoon-mate Adam LaRoche) and by hitting an amazing .309 at age 45. It's hard to think that he'll get that kind of opportunity again or be able to stay healthy for that long, but he's proven he can still hit in the right situations at his advanced age.
41. Mike Piazza, NY-N
Piazza's 2004 looked like his 2003: slow start, gets hot, then suffers an injury, never regains his stroke and speculation starts that he either will be moved to a different position or team. This time the speculation is that he will not play first base but be a fulltime catcher and it's possible that he will be traded to the American League, where he could DH and be a part-time catcher. The only saving grace to Piazza's lost 2004 season, during which his slugging percentage declined for the fourth straight year, was breaking Carlton Fisk's record for most homers by a catcher. It's clear that he's on the downside of his career and would benefit from a change of scenery.
42. Matthew LeCroy, MIN
LeCroy could win the starting DH job or get significant playing time in a platoon at the position or at catcher if Joe Mauer isn't healthy. He didn't get as much playing time last season as he did in 2003, but he did increase his time behind the plate and likely qualifies at catcher in most fantasy leagues with 26 games played at the position. He's a valuable catcher as a result because he could hit 20+ home runs if he gets enough at-bats but won't wear down or get hurt by playing too many games at the position. However, his defense behind the plate isn't strong enough to keep the everyday job. LeCroy is also a valuable bat off the bench as he hit four home runs as a pinch hitter.
43. John Olerud
Olerud revived his flagging career with clutch hits and his usual rock solid defense when the Yankees picked him up, but he'll play elsewhere if at all in 2005, has little power, and is no longer a .300 hitter.
44. Doug Mientkiewicz, NYM
Mientkiewicz played his part in Boston's pennant drive, eventually settling in after his arrival at the trade deadline as a late inning defensive replacement for Kevin Millar at first base. Privately, he was unhappy at not playing more. He doesn't give you the power you'd like out of a corner infielder, so he's little more than an end game pick. Mientkiewicz will have the same role in 2005 as he did last season and will have to learn to like it.
45. Casey Kotchman, ANA
Given the career-threatening injury to Tim Salmon, Kotchman should get plenty of opportunities to prove himself at both DH and first base in 2005. He's shown amazing plate discipline with solid power on the farm, traits he has yet to translate to big league success. He may be a nice steal if that potential comes home to roost this year.
1. Albert Pujols, STL
Pujols will enter the 2005 season at age 25, meaning he has yet to hit his statistical prime, which sabermetricians postulate comes after age 27. That's a scary thought considering he set career highs with 46 home runs and 84 walks. A batter without weakness, Pujols lowered his strikeout total from 93 as a rookie to just 52 in 2004. With pitchers unable to stop him, health becomes an issue. He battled through plantar fasciitis in his left foot from August through the end of the season. He was hardly slowed, hitting .344 in September and .414 with six home runs in the postseason. Winter treatments should heal that problem right up, giving pitchers even more pause.
2. Todd Helton, COL
Helton is a fantasy god. He has hit over .315 for seven straight years, consistently surpasses 30 HR and 100 RBI, and has never missed more than ten games in a season. At 31, he's in the prime of a magnificent career that shows no signs of slowing down. If there is any concern about Helton, it's that his supporting cast this year will be weaker than ever before. He'll have little protection in the lineup aside from Preston Wilson.
3. Mark Teixeira, TEX
Teixeira has arrived. He was fortunate to just miss the required 15 days with a strained oblique in early April, but his monster July (.750 slugging, 13 HR in 100 AB) made up for lost time. There's no more discussion of moving him to the outfield to make room for Adrian Gonzalez, so he'll be a first baseman for the foreseeable future. And a damn good one at that.
4. Aubrey Huff, TB
Huff historically gets off to poor starts only to turn into a fantasy stud in the second half of the season. Part of the problem may be that the Rays have changed defensive positions on him in either March or April each of the last three seasons, so Lou Piniella promises to tell Huff in February what position he'll play and use him there every day in spring training. The Rocco Baldelli injury may complicate such best-laid plans, however. If his position isn't resolved early, consider planning to buy low on Huff in May or June and then reap the rewards in the summer because the big dawg can hit.
5. David Ortiz, BOS
Big Papi is the MVP of the Red Sox, both in the clubhouse and on the field. He proved his 2003 season was no fluke and will continue to thrive in Boston's lineup as their cleanup hitter.
6. Justin Morneau, MIN
Morneau will play first base every day for the Twins after the trade of Doug Mientkiewicz. The highly-touted hitting prospect didn't disappoint after taking over the starting job in August, hitting 17 home runs in the second half of the season. After struggling at the major league level in 2003, Morneau showed he's turned the corner and should take the next step to soon become one of the AL's best at first base. With solid power and plate discipline, Morneau looks like a good bet to become the first Twin since 1987 to hit more than 30 home runs and is one of this year's strongest upside plays.
7. Carlos Delgado, FLA
After a nasty rib cage injury early on, he was the Delgado of old after the All-Star break with a .305 average, 1.033 OPS, 22 HR, and 63 RBI. He's a safe bet to post another punchy season wherever he ends up in free agency.
8. Jim Thome, PHI
The big first baseman had another good year for the Phillies, further justifying their big investment in him. Thome tied for fifth in the NL in HR, for 12th in RBI and ranked eighth in walks. He hit 15 of his homers in June. Thome's numbers against lefthanders (.239) are a cause for concern and he didn't thrive (.243) in Citizens Bank Park. Thome was slowed in September by a bruised chest he sustained in a collision, but that isn't a concern for 2005.
9. Derrek Lee, CHI-N
After a slow start, Lee came around and finished with numbers very similar to his 2003. Forecasts of a 40 HR season after his release from Pro Player Stadium were off by a bit, but at age 29, it wouldn't surprise us if he fulfilled those expectations in 2005. Lee is also a good bet for double-digit steals, a nice bonus from your first baseman.
10. Brad Wilkerson, WAS
Wilkerson broke through big-time in the power department, racking up over 70 extra base hits and a career high in SLG. He's just entering his prime, so the best may be yet to come -- Ray Lankford with half the steals and better health is perhaps the obvious comparison.
11. Shawn Green, AZ
Green's home run total rebounded last season at the expense of his batting average, but his overall numbers were very similar to 2003 and continued a steady decline. He'll start in right field after an offseason trade to Arizona. His numbers should increase with the change of ballparks, but a return to his 40 HR days may be a stretch.
12. Travis Hafner, CLE
Hafner blossomed in a big way in 2004, exploding on the scene to rank second in the AL in OPS and ninth in RBIs. He had shown good power and discipline as a first baseman in the Texas system and broke through with the Indians while batting almost exclusively as a DH. Hafner rivaled Ichiro as the majors' best hitter on the road (1.072 OPS) and might have had even better numbers if not for bone chips in his right elbow, which necessitated surgery in September. Hafner could stand to improve against lefthanders (.244), but that may be nitpicking. His fantasy owners should enjoy the ride, but they'll have to do it using their DH spot in most leagues.
13. Sean Casey, CIN
This was Casey's best season since the 2000 season, and his healthiest since then. The 24 homers is about the upper extent of his power potential, but his batting average should remain that high as long as he's healthy.
14. Lyle Overbay, MIL
Overbay had a spectacular first half and an average second half in 2004. He finished with Those are good numbers for most players, but you usually want a little more from your first baseman. The conventional wisdom is that he is just holding the position until Prince Fielder is ready to make the jump to the majors, either late in 2005 or to start 2006. The Brewers may try to move him to the outfield when that happens but more likely they will trade him.
15. Carlos Pena, DET
Pena finally delivered on his power potential in 2004. He will almost assuredly hurt any team's average but his power numbers and remaining untapped potential mean he's worth keeping in mind on draft day.
16. Jeff Bagwell, HOU
Bagwell played through another season with a banged up shoulder and his production at the plate took a big hit. Bagwell hit just 27 home runs in 2004, his lowest such output since 1995. The All Star first baseman has vowed to change his "sitting down" approach at the plate for a more conventional upright style and it will be interesting as to how he'll adapt to that change in the upcoming season.
17. Richie Sexson, SEA
Sexson played in just 23 games last year before suffering a dislocated shoulder that required season-ending surgery. His health makes him a risk and Seattle's large field might eat up a few of his home runs, but he remains a significant fantasy play. Just make sure you have a strong backup.
18. Paul Konerko, CHI-A
Konerko shook off his 2003 slump and attacked the ball with a vengeance last year, setting new career highs in home runs, RBI, SLG and walks -- and strikeouts, of course, a by-product of his new approach. He's still in his prime (29 on Opening Day) and just so long as he doesn't slip back into back habits, he should enjoy the new 35+ HR level he's found.
19. Phil Nevin, SD
Last year was a typical Nevin season; he lost his temper and cursed profusely in front of a young fan which prompted a public apology, he ended up in a shouting match with general manager Kevin Towers over heated public comments about Petco Park's dimensions and the offseason again has him linked to more than a few trade rumors. The temper, production and rumor mill are all old hat for the a .301 average 53 doubles, and a .385 OBP. 34-year-old. Looking to put together a more defensive outfield, the Padres could be forced to deal the heart and soul of the team. Ryan Klesko is not suited to the ballpark but Nevin is the piece the team is able to move, which would allow a shift to first base for Rhino. But no matter where Nevin winds up, he should be good for 30 home runs and 100 RBI, provided the body holds up for 145 games.
20. Mike Sweeney, KC
This season is important for Sweeney, who once again had his season curtailed by a back injury. His games played have gone from 159 in 2000 to 106 in 2004. His numbers are also taking a hit as he is constantly headed to or coming off of the disabled list. When healthy, Sweeney is a powerful hitter with very few holes in his swing. Despite missing 56 games, he led the team with 22 home runs and 79 RBI.
21. Darin Erstad, ANA
The good news is Erstad posted his highest OPS since his monster year in 2000. The bad news is that OPS was .746. He's got a weak bat at an offensively critical position and at 31 is looking less and less like an asset and more like a liability.
22. Kevin Millar, BOS
Millar was nonexistent during the first half of 2004 as Cowboy Up became Pop Up. Red Sox manager Terry Francona's patience finally paid off when Millar went on a torrid July that set up a second half resurgence (.319/.408/.566) and enabled him to remain a regular in Boston's lineup. His power production dropped in 2004, but it merely reverted back to normal after an abnormally prodigious 2003. He's a streaky hitter and will frustrate even the most patient of fantasy owners, but should not hurt you at the corner infield position. He's a very big part of the clubhouse and will remain the team's everyday first baseman. The Red Sox have a very capable backup in Doug Mientkiewicz, but this will not be a platoon situation. One issue of note is that Francona will use Mientkiewicz as a late-inning defensive replacement when it makes sense for Boston to have its best defensive unit on the field. That could result in 50-75 less at-bats for Millar.
23. Ben Broussard, CLE
Broussard established himself as a big league hitter in 2004, but his hold on the first-base job with Cleveland will be short-lived. Michael Aubrey, the club's top hitting prospect, will be ready in 2006. Travis Hafner, the DH and the club's best hitter, also plays first. Broussard is a decent hitter and he will start 2005 as the Indians first baseman. But if he slumps or gets hurt he could be quickly forgotten.
24. Dmitri Young, DET
After an All-Star year in 2003, Young missed nearly a third of the 2004 season after breaking his leg in just the Tigers' second game. He still managed to assemble a decent campaign after returning, but never looked quite as good as he did in 2003 and was forced into the DH role because he wasn't mobile enough to play the field. His leg shouldn't give him any problems in 2005.
25. Craig Wilson, PIT
In his first season as a full-time player, Wilson led the Pirates in homers (29) and tied for the team lead in RBI with 82. The bonus here is that in most leagues Wilson qualified as a catcher. However, in 2004 he only appeared behind the plate in four games, starting one, so in most formats he has lost his eligibility at the position. The good news is that may not last long since Jason Kendall is gone and there is a solid chance that Wilson will be deployed at catcher enough to regain the coveted eligibility. Wilson is no whiz with any of the three gloves he carries (C, 1B, OF), but the Pirates will find ways to keep him in their lineup because they absolutely need the power he provides. With a little more patience at the plate – he whiffed 169 times, the third highest total in the majors – Wilson could improve on his .264 average, but the bottom line here is that the moment he qualifies as a catcher, his fantasy value will take a quantum leap forward.
26. Shea Hillenbrand, TOR
Hillenbrand enjoyed maybe his best season as a big leaguer in 2004. He spent most of the year at first base after Richie Sexson went down, but can still play third. The ballpark at Arizona really played to Hillenbrand's strengths as a hitter, so if he goes elsewhere, look at the park effects carefully.
27. Pedro Feliz, SF
Feliz appeared in a career-high 140 games and also set highs in HR, RBI and batting average in 2004. The Giants have committed to finding him a full-time role in 2005, but when the team exercised its contract option on J.T. Snow, that promise became uncertain. He's too good a player to ride the bench, however, so the Giants are bound to find him a regular spot somehow.
28. Nick Johnson, WAS
Johnson lived up to his injury-prone tag in 2004, registering his lowest AB total in three years. It's impossible to predict how many games he'll play, or what he'll do in them, so tread cautiously.
29. Adam LaRoche, ATL
LaRoche platooned with Julio Franco and had a disappointing start to his rookie season. He hit just .242 with 2 HR before separating his left shoulder in late May, missing a month. Once he returned he caught fire and hit .302 with 10 HR and a .952 OPS after the All-Star break. He should be in less of a platoon situation this season after his late-season surge and with Franco likely to decline at age 46. The jury is still out on his power potential and with the platoon situation taking away at-bats, he'll start the season as a second-tier first baseman. However, his strong second half shows he has potential to surprise.
30. Jeff Conine, FLA
Conine enters spring as the Marlins starting first baseman and has a real shot at being the worst everyday first baseman in the NL. Two offseason shoulder surgeries aren't going to make his 38-year-old bat any quicker.
31. Scott Hatteberg, OAK
Hatteberg improved on some rather ghastly 2003 numbers (.383 slugging anyone?) but even with the bump, a .787 OPS from an AL first baseman isn't helping a team struggling to score runs. He'll figure in the mix at 1B and DH again this season.
32. Rafael Palmeiro, BAL
Palmeiro's critics blamed his age and declining bat speed. He blamed inconsistencies in his approach to the plate, trying to overcompensate for exaggerated pull shifts. Any way you slice it, the 40-year-old's home 2004, ending an incredible streak of 10 consecutive non-strike years with at least 37 home runs and 104 RBI. The most surprising thing was that Palmeiro batted only .189 against lefties, against whom he had hit well in the past. The Orioles brought Palmeiro back to be their regular DH in 2005, though he'll likely sit against many southpaws. He should have a better batting average as a result.
33. Tino Martinez, NY-A
Martinez confounded the experts in 2004 by turning in perhaps his best season since he was on the '98 Yankees. He'll turn 37 this spring, however, and will be hard-pressed to match those numbers in 2005. Left-handers give him more trouble as time goes by, so a platoon situation might be best. However, he could win a sizable role with the Yankees with Jason Giambi's status unclear.
34. Josh Phelps, TB
The former Blue Jay prospect, who won Rookie of the Month both in August and September 2002, has seen his time cut as a DH ever since his rookie year. He has declined steadily the last two years, with both his power and his plate discipline taking a nosedive. The Indians designated him for assignment this offseason rather than offering him arbitration. Perhaps a good hitting coach can straighten him out, but time is getting short.
35. Ken Harvey, KC
Harvey took a .375 batting average into June and became the Royals' lone representative at the All-Star game. Shoulder problems and a bruised forearm gnawed at him in mid-June and sent him spiraling. He hit .235 in July, .254 in August and .205 in September as numerous aches and pains haunted him. Harvey's a chunky guy, which puts stress on his lower body. When healthy, Harvey is an All-Star caliber hitter capable of hitting 20-plus home runs and hitting over .350. Health, however, is a big issue and one he will have to overcome in 2005 to continue to be a major cog in the Royals' plans.
36. Jason Giambi, NY-A
Parasites? Tumors? The 2004 season was a nightmare for Giambi as he batted just .208 with 12 HR and it wasn't so hot for his fantasy owners either. He's a horrendous defensive player and should spend as much time as possible at DH this season. You're taking a run and RBI totals dropped off significantly in massive chance if you draft him; you could get 40 dingers, or you could get someone who'll spend months on the DL or who'll play himself out of town. Now one of the principal figures in the BALCO scandal, he may be run out of town before he gets a chance to play himself out. Buyer beware
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37. J.T. Snow, SF
Snow had to compete with Pedro Feliz and Damon Minor for time at first base after he returned from the knee surgery that kept him out a month, but it did him good. He made contact with the ball better than ever, though his power numbers remained similar to what they have been for the past three seasons. Snow has hit better than .280 just twice in his 13-year tenure, so fantasy owners ought to keep his career average of .267 in mind come next year's draft.
38. Matt Stairs, KC
Stairs can only be considered a luxury for the Royals. He'll turn 37 during spring and, defensively, is just above full-time designated hitter talent. With Mike Sweeney, Ken Harvey and Calvin Pickering clogging the DH and first base slots, Stairs' action will come in the corner outfield spots. If he hits well and/or if Aaron Guiel, Abraham Nunez and Terrence Long all show they can adequately play in the majors, Stairs is nice trade bait. How he hits will determine just how well the Royals spent the $1 million to sign him.
39. Hee Seop Choi, LA
Choi came to the Dodgers last season after being acquired in a deadline deal with the Marlins. He was expected to take over as the team's starting first baseman but struggled mightily and ended up playing only sporadically down the stretch. The Dodgers will likely end up spending money in other areas (third base and pitching) meaning Choi stands a chance to come out of spring training as the starter at first. He'll be worth grabbing in the late rounds of drafts since he still has potential given his command of the strike zone and power.
40. Julio Franco, ATL
Franco surprised by reaching 320 AB (thanks in part to a month missed by platoon-mate Adam LaRoche) and by hitting an amazing .309 at age 45. It's hard to think that he'll get that kind of opportunity again or be able to stay healthy for that long, but he's proven he can still hit in the right situations at his advanced age.
41. Mike Piazza, NY-N
Piazza's 2004 looked like his 2003: slow start, gets hot, then suffers an injury, never regains his stroke and speculation starts that he either will be moved to a different position or team. This time the speculation is that he will not play first base but be a fulltime catcher and it's possible that he will be traded to the American League, where he could DH and be a part-time catcher. The only saving grace to Piazza's lost 2004 season, during which his slugging percentage declined for the fourth straight year, was breaking Carlton Fisk's record for most homers by a catcher. It's clear that he's on the downside of his career and would benefit from a change of scenery.
42. Matthew LeCroy, MIN
LeCroy could win the starting DH job or get significant playing time in a platoon at the position or at catcher if Joe Mauer isn't healthy. He didn't get as much playing time last season as he did in 2003, but he did increase his time behind the plate and likely qualifies at catcher in most fantasy leagues with 26 games played at the position. He's a valuable catcher as a result because he could hit 20+ home runs if he gets enough at-bats but won't wear down or get hurt by playing too many games at the position. However, his defense behind the plate isn't strong enough to keep the everyday job. LeCroy is also a valuable bat off the bench as he hit four home runs as a pinch hitter.
43. John Olerud
Olerud revived his flagging career with clutch hits and his usual rock solid defense when the Yankees picked him up, but he'll play elsewhere if at all in 2005, has little power, and is no longer a .300 hitter.
44. Doug Mientkiewicz, NYM
Mientkiewicz played his part in Boston's pennant drive, eventually settling in after his arrival at the trade deadline as a late inning defensive replacement for Kevin Millar at first base. Privately, he was unhappy at not playing more. He doesn't give you the power you'd like out of a corner infielder, so he's little more than an end game pick. Mientkiewicz will have the same role in 2005 as he did last season and will have to learn to like it.
45. Casey Kotchman, ANA
Given the career-threatening injury to Tim Salmon, Kotchman should get plenty of opportunities to prove himself at both DH and first base in 2005. He's shown amazing plate discipline with solid power on the farm, traits he has yet to translate to big league success. He may be a nice steal if that potential comes home to roost this year.