sportznut
02-08-2005, 09:12 PM
Many times this is like catching lightning in a bottle.
FLB '05: Contract Year Players
Thursday, February 3, 2005
Modified: Thursday, February 3, 2005
Money talks. Winning might seem like the greatest motivating factor in professional sports, but in these days of multi-million-dollar contracts, it's only natural that the almighty dollar drives players just the same. For instance, take a look back at the annual list of players who put forth career-year numbers while in the final seasons of their contracts -- the appropriately named "contract-year" players by fantasy baseball enthusiasts. In 2004, that list boasted the names Carlos Beltran (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6132')), Adrian Beltre (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6039')), Armando Benitez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5290')), J.D. Drew (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6117')), Carl Pavano (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5945')) and Jaret Wright (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5839')), who all burst forth with career years. But that's not all; Moises Alou (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4517')), Jeromy Burnitz (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5061')), Vinny Castilla (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4746')), Eric Milton (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5944')), Brad Radke (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5337')) and Jason Varitek (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5921')) each enjoyed excellent seasons, close to the best numbers of their careers. Still think contract-year players are a myth, that players motivate themselves just as well one day as the next? That's pretty compelling evidence to the contrary.
I'm not saying that every contract-year player is assured a huge fantasy season. After all, some 100-plus players become free agents each year, and they can't all be great. But it's a tidbit you need to take into account when evaluating players, especially those with otherwise comparable value. Taking a look at the 2005-06 prospective free-agent class, here are 10 players who seem most likely to be inspired to post huge fantasy totals:
Lance Berkman (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6279')), OF, Houston: Don't fall prey to the fears that knee surgery will sap a great deal of his value. Berkman has a contract for which to play once healthy, and that could be a primary reason for his desire for a quick return. If you're not worried about the 20 games missed Barry Bonds (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3918')) has averaged the past three seasons, then why worry if Berkman misses that many in April? If the contract-year factor takes effect, it would be no shock to see Berkman post .300-30-100 numbers, even in a five-month season.
CONTRACT-YEAR SLEEPERS The following nine players aren't going to garner much attention on draft day, but the inspiration of playing for a new contract could help them force their way into prominent spots on their respective teams. Keep them in mind for the later rounds.
Wes Helms (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6080')), 3B, Milwaukee: A knee injury could have been responsible for his sudden lack of power last season. Still, Helms makes better contact than Russell Branyan (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6149')), and it would be no shock to see him reclaim the starting job.
Todd Hollandsworth (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5301')), OF, Chicago Cubs: With Sosa gone, Hollandsworth might have a chance at earning an everyday job in the Windy City. Remember, he hit an impressive .318 with eight homers in limited duty last year.
Terrence Long (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6199')), OF, Kansas City: He hit .347 in limited duty after the All-Star break last year, and now could start on a Royals team that lacks depth.
Eli Marrero (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5897')), OF, Kansas City: He batted .320 with 10 home runs in a pitcher-friendly ballpark in Atlanta, and is now moving to the more hitter-friendly league and to a ballpark that leans toward offense. He could quickly become the regular in left field.
Ramon Ortiz (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6317')), SP, Cincinnati: The man once called "little Pedro Martinez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4875'))" now escapes the competitive American League West for a regular rotation spot in the National League Central as a member of the Reds. He'll enjoy the extra games against those mediocre Brewers and Pirates lineups.
Jay Payton (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5773')), OF, Boston: It's no guarantee he'll still be with the Red Sox come opening day, but if he's traded, he'll likely start elsewhere. And even if he sticks in Boston, Payton will be the No. 4 outfielder, one injury away from starting, on a great offense.
Placido Polanco (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6049')), 2B, Philadelphia: If Chase Utley (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7072')) struggles, Polanco's right there to reclaim the starting job. But that doesn't seem too likely. It's a far better bet that Polanco outhits incumbent third baseman David Bell (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5343')) in the spring, overtaking him for that job.
Brett Tomko (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5819')), SP, San Francisco: He was a pretty effective pitcher for the Giants last season, and perhaps the contract-year status will inspire him to do even better. At least Tomko has the help of that spacious ballpark.
Ugueth Urbina (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5385')), RP, Detroit: He won't close for the Tigers, but a trade is probably all he needs to get back into that role somewhere. Urbina's value will go through the roof if the Blue Jays, Brewers, Cubs or Rockies come calling.
A.J. Burnett (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6314')), SP, Florida: He was just turning the corner in his recovery from Tommy John surgery late last season, going 6-1 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.107 WHIP and 68 strikeouts in his final 10 starts. Project those numbers to a 33-start season and you get 20 wins and 224 strikeouts, Cy Young-worthy totals. Remember, Burnett is a guy scouts say has one of the best arms in the National League, and history shows that many pitchers explode with great numbers the second year after their return from Tommy John surgery. Throw in the contract-year factor and Burnett is a serious breakout candidate.
Ryan Dempster (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6006')), RP, Chicago Cubs (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=chn')): He's nowhere near as big a name as some of the other contract-year players, but Dempster is in one of the more interesting situations of this year's candidates. The early buzz has him the favorite to close for the Cubs, and he has two motivating factors helping drive him this season -- playing for a new contract, and proving he's fully recovered from 2003 Tommy John surgery. Dempster isn't quite as far along in his recovery as Burnett, but you can count on him doing everything in his power to handle the duties of closing in Chicago. He might surprise.
Rafael Furcal (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6404')), SS, Atlanta: A common criticism of the contract-year theory is that hitters don't necessarily do better just by swinging harder and pitchers can't always do better by just throwing harder. (Of course, that's getting into the ethics of effort put forth by players, which is virtually impossible to gauge.) One thing players can improve their efforts in, however, is running the bases, which is what makes Furcal so appealing. He stole 40 bases as a rookie but has yet to return to the 30-steal plateau since, though he has gotten his power numbers into the 15-60 range the past two seasons. With Atlanta's offense continuing to lose key cogs, Furcal could be asked -- or he could even request -- to make more things happen. I wouldn't be shocked to see him approach 20 homers with 40 steals.
Nomar Garciaparra (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5706')), SS, Chicago Cubs: The fact that he signed a one-year deal says he's committed to using the 2005 season as his proving ground that he's still among the game's elite players. Garciaparra is coming off a rocky year in which he battled Achilles', groin and wrist injuries, all the while hearing the rumors that the Red Sox no longer really wanted him. He seemed to have a better mental approach after his trade to the Cubs, and now he can use this season to prove to the baseball world that he's still capable of a .300-25-100 season and worthy of a lucrative contract like those of fellow shortstops Derek Jeter (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5406')) and Miguel Tejada (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5888')). If Garciaparra looks healthy this spring, expect him to rebound.
Brian Giles (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5543')), OF, San Diego: Coming off one of the more disappointing years of his career, Giles knows that this might be his last chance to score one final big contract next winter. I know there's plenty of talk that Petco Park is incredibly rough on left-handed sluggers, but the fact remains that one year's worth of stadium statistics doesn't forever label its tendencies. Most teams need some time to adjust to their new digs, and Giles strikes me as a player who will make those adjustments. It might be his last big year, but it should be a reasonably big one nonetheless.
Matt Morris (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5784')), SP, St. Louis: He's coming off the worst year of his career, and he didn't seem to quite have the shoulder strength that he did in the past. However, Morris does have one thing to his advantage, and that's a pitching coach (Dave Duncan) who is excellent at fixing the mechanical flaws in pitchers rather quickly. Duncan made Jason Marquis (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6493')) a 15-game winner virtually overnight, and you know Morris will probably heed any advice he can as he tries to earn his next contract. Remember, he won 39 games from 2001-02.
Dave Roberts (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6305')), OF, San Diego: Like Furcal, Roberts can maximize his effort by running more freely on the basepaths. One place you can count on that happening is in San Diego, where success means playing small-ball and working one base at a time. Roberts, as the Padres' new leadoff hitter, is going to become one of the most important -- yet most overlooked in fantasy leagues -- members of this offense. Expect another 40-steal campaign with the chance at as many as 50, with an average higher than last year's .254 mark.
Sammy Sosa (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4344')), OF, Baltimore Orioles: While it usually doesn't mean as much to a player of Sosa's age that he's playing for a new contract, he's one for whom it's important because he's surely aware of his prospective place in history. He's 36, four years younger than Barry Bonds, and is 129 homers behind Bonds for third place on the all-time home run list, 181 behind Hank Aaron for the lead. Now Sosa moves to a park designed with his hitting style in mind, with plenty to prove after wearing out his welcome with the Cubs. He's still got the power stroke, and he's got at least another year to exercise it. Expect at least one more big season from Sosa.
Jeff Weaver (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6200')), SP, Los Angeles: The Beltran, Beltre and Drew examples of a year ago demonstrate how young players entering their contract years are excellent picks, if only because you have to expect a guy is going to improve as his career heads to its peak. Weaver is still just 28 years old, and his career is still on the rise after being thrown off course in a couple of years in New York. He adapted extremely well to Dodger Stadium and the National League, and finished 7-4 with a 3.79 ERA in 16 second-half starts. Weaver still has room to grow, and it's conceivable he could be earning Cy Young votes in November.
Best of the rest: Chris Carpenter (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5771')), Jose Cruz Jr. (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5786')), Carl Everett (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5073')), Tom Gordon (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4279')), Ramon Hernandez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6258')), Richard Hidalgo (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5896')), Charles Johnson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5228')), Jason Johnson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5885')), Jose Lima (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5212')), Kevin Millar (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5981')), Bill Mueller (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5587')), Joe Randa (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5298')), Felix Rodriguez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5390')), Reggie Sanders (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4737')), J.T. Snow (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4969')), Billy Wagner (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5536')), Larry Walker (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4181')), Bob Wickman (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4919')), Preston Wilson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5994')), Randy Winn (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5998')), Dmitri Young (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5699')).
Soon-to-be free agents, but stars already: Roger Clemens (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3340')), Johnny Damon (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5484')), Trevor Hoffman (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4975')), Tim Hudson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6245')), Paul Konerko (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5908')), Carlos Lee (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6161')), Juan Pierre (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6550')), Aramis Ramirez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6014'))
Could conceivably retire next winter: Craig Biggio (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4217')), Bret Boone (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4917')), Kevin Brown (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3979')), Paul Byrd (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5468')), Jeff Conine (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4600')), Marquis Grissom (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4389')), Al Leiter (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4130')), Kenny Lofton (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4789')), Jamie Moyer (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3932')), Mike Piazza (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4928')), Kenny Rogers (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3974')), Benito Santiago (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3924')), Frank Thomas (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4527')), Tim Wakefield (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4906')), Bernie Williams (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4695')).
Key players with 2006 options: Aaron Boone (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5838')), Ray Durham (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5323')), Danny Graves (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5649')), Jose Guillen (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5753')), LaTroy Hawkins (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5336')), Jason Isringhausen (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5449')), Braden Looper (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5966')), Mark Loretta (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5504')), Mark Mulder (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6393')), Jason Schmidt (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5340')), Jeff Suppan (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5454')), John Thomson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5772')).
FLB '05: Contract Year Players
Thursday, February 3, 2005
Modified: Thursday, February 3, 2005
Money talks. Winning might seem like the greatest motivating factor in professional sports, but in these days of multi-million-dollar contracts, it's only natural that the almighty dollar drives players just the same. For instance, take a look back at the annual list of players who put forth career-year numbers while in the final seasons of their contracts -- the appropriately named "contract-year" players by fantasy baseball enthusiasts. In 2004, that list boasted the names Carlos Beltran (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6132')), Adrian Beltre (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6039')), Armando Benitez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5290')), J.D. Drew (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6117')), Carl Pavano (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5945')) and Jaret Wright (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5839')), who all burst forth with career years. But that's not all; Moises Alou (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4517')), Jeromy Burnitz (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5061')), Vinny Castilla (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4746')), Eric Milton (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5944')), Brad Radke (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5337')) and Jason Varitek (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5921')) each enjoyed excellent seasons, close to the best numbers of their careers. Still think contract-year players are a myth, that players motivate themselves just as well one day as the next? That's pretty compelling evidence to the contrary.
I'm not saying that every contract-year player is assured a huge fantasy season. After all, some 100-plus players become free agents each year, and they can't all be great. But it's a tidbit you need to take into account when evaluating players, especially those with otherwise comparable value. Taking a look at the 2005-06 prospective free-agent class, here are 10 players who seem most likely to be inspired to post huge fantasy totals:
Lance Berkman (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6279')), OF, Houston: Don't fall prey to the fears that knee surgery will sap a great deal of his value. Berkman has a contract for which to play once healthy, and that could be a primary reason for his desire for a quick return. If you're not worried about the 20 games missed Barry Bonds (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3918')) has averaged the past three seasons, then why worry if Berkman misses that many in April? If the contract-year factor takes effect, it would be no shock to see Berkman post .300-30-100 numbers, even in a five-month season.
CONTRACT-YEAR SLEEPERS The following nine players aren't going to garner much attention on draft day, but the inspiration of playing for a new contract could help them force their way into prominent spots on their respective teams. Keep them in mind for the later rounds.
Wes Helms (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6080')), 3B, Milwaukee: A knee injury could have been responsible for his sudden lack of power last season. Still, Helms makes better contact than Russell Branyan (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6149')), and it would be no shock to see him reclaim the starting job.
Todd Hollandsworth (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5301')), OF, Chicago Cubs: With Sosa gone, Hollandsworth might have a chance at earning an everyday job in the Windy City. Remember, he hit an impressive .318 with eight homers in limited duty last year.
Terrence Long (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6199')), OF, Kansas City: He hit .347 in limited duty after the All-Star break last year, and now could start on a Royals team that lacks depth.
Eli Marrero (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5897')), OF, Kansas City: He batted .320 with 10 home runs in a pitcher-friendly ballpark in Atlanta, and is now moving to the more hitter-friendly league and to a ballpark that leans toward offense. He could quickly become the regular in left field.
Ramon Ortiz (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6317')), SP, Cincinnati: The man once called "little Pedro Martinez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4875'))" now escapes the competitive American League West for a regular rotation spot in the National League Central as a member of the Reds. He'll enjoy the extra games against those mediocre Brewers and Pirates lineups.
Jay Payton (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5773')), OF, Boston: It's no guarantee he'll still be with the Red Sox come opening day, but if he's traded, he'll likely start elsewhere. And even if he sticks in Boston, Payton will be the No. 4 outfielder, one injury away from starting, on a great offense.
Placido Polanco (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6049')), 2B, Philadelphia: If Chase Utley (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7072')) struggles, Polanco's right there to reclaim the starting job. But that doesn't seem too likely. It's a far better bet that Polanco outhits incumbent third baseman David Bell (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5343')) in the spring, overtaking him for that job.
Brett Tomko (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5819')), SP, San Francisco: He was a pretty effective pitcher for the Giants last season, and perhaps the contract-year status will inspire him to do even better. At least Tomko has the help of that spacious ballpark.
Ugueth Urbina (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5385')), RP, Detroit: He won't close for the Tigers, but a trade is probably all he needs to get back into that role somewhere. Urbina's value will go through the roof if the Blue Jays, Brewers, Cubs or Rockies come calling.
A.J. Burnett (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6314')), SP, Florida: He was just turning the corner in his recovery from Tommy John surgery late last season, going 6-1 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.107 WHIP and 68 strikeouts in his final 10 starts. Project those numbers to a 33-start season and you get 20 wins and 224 strikeouts, Cy Young-worthy totals. Remember, Burnett is a guy scouts say has one of the best arms in the National League, and history shows that many pitchers explode with great numbers the second year after their return from Tommy John surgery. Throw in the contract-year factor and Burnett is a serious breakout candidate.
Ryan Dempster (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6006')), RP, Chicago Cubs (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=chn')): He's nowhere near as big a name as some of the other contract-year players, but Dempster is in one of the more interesting situations of this year's candidates. The early buzz has him the favorite to close for the Cubs, and he has two motivating factors helping drive him this season -- playing for a new contract, and proving he's fully recovered from 2003 Tommy John surgery. Dempster isn't quite as far along in his recovery as Burnett, but you can count on him doing everything in his power to handle the duties of closing in Chicago. He might surprise.
Rafael Furcal (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6404')), SS, Atlanta: A common criticism of the contract-year theory is that hitters don't necessarily do better just by swinging harder and pitchers can't always do better by just throwing harder. (Of course, that's getting into the ethics of effort put forth by players, which is virtually impossible to gauge.) One thing players can improve their efforts in, however, is running the bases, which is what makes Furcal so appealing. He stole 40 bases as a rookie but has yet to return to the 30-steal plateau since, though he has gotten his power numbers into the 15-60 range the past two seasons. With Atlanta's offense continuing to lose key cogs, Furcal could be asked -- or he could even request -- to make more things happen. I wouldn't be shocked to see him approach 20 homers with 40 steals.
Nomar Garciaparra (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5706')), SS, Chicago Cubs: The fact that he signed a one-year deal says he's committed to using the 2005 season as his proving ground that he's still among the game's elite players. Garciaparra is coming off a rocky year in which he battled Achilles', groin and wrist injuries, all the while hearing the rumors that the Red Sox no longer really wanted him. He seemed to have a better mental approach after his trade to the Cubs, and now he can use this season to prove to the baseball world that he's still capable of a .300-25-100 season and worthy of a lucrative contract like those of fellow shortstops Derek Jeter (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5406')) and Miguel Tejada (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5888')). If Garciaparra looks healthy this spring, expect him to rebound.
Brian Giles (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5543')), OF, San Diego: Coming off one of the more disappointing years of his career, Giles knows that this might be his last chance to score one final big contract next winter. I know there's plenty of talk that Petco Park is incredibly rough on left-handed sluggers, but the fact remains that one year's worth of stadium statistics doesn't forever label its tendencies. Most teams need some time to adjust to their new digs, and Giles strikes me as a player who will make those adjustments. It might be his last big year, but it should be a reasonably big one nonetheless.
Matt Morris (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5784')), SP, St. Louis: He's coming off the worst year of his career, and he didn't seem to quite have the shoulder strength that he did in the past. However, Morris does have one thing to his advantage, and that's a pitching coach (Dave Duncan) who is excellent at fixing the mechanical flaws in pitchers rather quickly. Duncan made Jason Marquis (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6493')) a 15-game winner virtually overnight, and you know Morris will probably heed any advice he can as he tries to earn his next contract. Remember, he won 39 games from 2001-02.
Dave Roberts (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6305')), OF, San Diego: Like Furcal, Roberts can maximize his effort by running more freely on the basepaths. One place you can count on that happening is in San Diego, where success means playing small-ball and working one base at a time. Roberts, as the Padres' new leadoff hitter, is going to become one of the most important -- yet most overlooked in fantasy leagues -- members of this offense. Expect another 40-steal campaign with the chance at as many as 50, with an average higher than last year's .254 mark.
Sammy Sosa (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4344')), OF, Baltimore Orioles: While it usually doesn't mean as much to a player of Sosa's age that he's playing for a new contract, he's one for whom it's important because he's surely aware of his prospective place in history. He's 36, four years younger than Barry Bonds, and is 129 homers behind Bonds for third place on the all-time home run list, 181 behind Hank Aaron for the lead. Now Sosa moves to a park designed with his hitting style in mind, with plenty to prove after wearing out his welcome with the Cubs. He's still got the power stroke, and he's got at least another year to exercise it. Expect at least one more big season from Sosa.
Jeff Weaver (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6200')), SP, Los Angeles: The Beltran, Beltre and Drew examples of a year ago demonstrate how young players entering their contract years are excellent picks, if only because you have to expect a guy is going to improve as his career heads to its peak. Weaver is still just 28 years old, and his career is still on the rise after being thrown off course in a couple of years in New York. He adapted extremely well to Dodger Stadium and the National League, and finished 7-4 with a 3.79 ERA in 16 second-half starts. Weaver still has room to grow, and it's conceivable he could be earning Cy Young votes in November.
Best of the rest: Chris Carpenter (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5771')), Jose Cruz Jr. (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5786')), Carl Everett (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5073')), Tom Gordon (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4279')), Ramon Hernandez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6258')), Richard Hidalgo (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5896')), Charles Johnson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5228')), Jason Johnson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5885')), Jose Lima (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5212')), Kevin Millar (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5981')), Bill Mueller (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5587')), Joe Randa (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5298')), Felix Rodriguez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5390')), Reggie Sanders (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4737')), J.T. Snow (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4969')), Billy Wagner (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5536')), Larry Walker (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4181')), Bob Wickman (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4919')), Preston Wilson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5994')), Randy Winn (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5998')), Dmitri Young (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5699')).
Soon-to-be free agents, but stars already: Roger Clemens (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3340')), Johnny Damon (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5484')), Trevor Hoffman (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4975')), Tim Hudson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6245')), Paul Konerko (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5908')), Carlos Lee (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6161')), Juan Pierre (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6550')), Aramis Ramirez (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6014'))
Could conceivably retire next winter: Craig Biggio (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4217')), Bret Boone (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4917')), Kevin Brown (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3979')), Paul Byrd (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5468')), Jeff Conine (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4600')), Marquis Grissom (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4389')), Al Leiter (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4130')), Kenny Lofton (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4789')), Jamie Moyer (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3932')), Mike Piazza (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4928')), Kenny Rogers (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3974')), Benito Santiago (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3924')), Frank Thomas (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4527')), Tim Wakefield (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4906')), Bernie Williams (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4695')).
Key players with 2006 options: Aaron Boone (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5838')), Ray Durham (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5323')), Danny Graves (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5649')), Jose Guillen (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5753')), LaTroy Hawkins (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5336')), Jason Isringhausen (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5449')), Braden Looper (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5966')), Mark Loretta (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5504')), Mark Mulder (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6393')), Jason Schmidt (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5340')), Jeff Suppan (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5454')), John Thomson (http://javascript<b></b>:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5772')).