Fantasy Tidbits [Archive]

sportznut

02-08-2005, 06:12 PM

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Karabell Blog: Updated Feb. 8

Monday, February 7, 2005
Modified: Tuesday, February 8, 2005

Eric Karabell always seems to have something to say, so now he has no limits. In this space he will add to his running blog on fantasy baseball whenever he wants. Thoughts? Blog ideas? Tell him (http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/mailbagESPN?event_id=6866).

Posted 6:37 p.m. ET, Tuesday, Feb. 8
Love the e-mails. Keep it coming. From Josh in New York City, "First, congrats on the new picture. It makes you look much less like a doogie houser uber geek, and me a little less ashamed about fantasy. OK, my question. As I begin to plot fantasy domination, I see a number of good players coming off of injuries that might still take a month or two to get into the swing of things. (Lance Berkman (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6279')) and Roy Halladay (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6134')) come to mind.) Since you get paid to research this stuff, who do you see as late bloomers."

Thanks for the kind words. Um, I think. Berkman is going too low in drafts. He might miss April. That's it. He doesn't rely on speed. He can hit a baseball falling out of bed in the morning. He'll be fine. Halladay is another great example, except he's healthy, and will be ready opening day. But for those who draft solely on the previous year's numbers, don't forget about Halladay.

Who are the injury risks I would take a shot on? Joe Mauer (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7062')), Richie Sexson (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5931')), Carlos Guillen (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6105')) and Magglio Ordonez (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5889')) all were injured in '04. All appear healthy but could miss time. Frankly, I don't think I'd overpay for any of them, except for Mauer. He's young enough to overcome injury, but playing catcher offsets it. Sexson scares me, the shoulder problem, and the park. Guillen tore his ACL, he should be ready for opening day, but not in tip-top shape. Ordonez, as I've written, flat out scares me. And I'm close to putting Preston Wilson (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5994')) into the same argument as Ordonez.

I need to see Jason Giambi (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5386')) play in Spring Training before making a determination on him. I think Curt Schilling (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4267')) is such a bulldog that he will be ready for opening day.

This from Chris in Havertown, Pa.: "Since you mention Preston Wilson in your blog, can you give me the low-down on him? Is he recovered from his injury problems from last year?" No, I don't think he is. Preston had two surgeries on his left knee in 2004, and certainly appears to be damaged goods. The Rockies have been trying to trade him for whatever they can get. And if Wilson is not in Coors Field, and with knee problems that will surely hinder his running, he's no longer a top fantasy option. I don't want Wilson this season.

From K-Dawg in Philly: "Why the disrespect for Casey Fossum (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6772'))? I think the Rays stole another one. He was the guy Theo didn't want to trade for Bartolo Colon (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5763')), went to the desert for Schill, then got hurt and never got a shot in Arizona. P.S.: Nice new glasses." You know, it's strange all this talk about the new mug, the glasses, etc. Maybe I'll actually start paying attention. I don't think I'm disrespecting Fossum, but there's something really big in his way to fantasy and real life success: It's the Devil Rays. His new team. Who's the best pitcher in Tampa history? Has anyone ever had a good season there? Wouldn't you love Scott Kazmir (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7292')) on any other team? The Devil Rays have had only ONE pitcher with the requisite innings finish a season with an ERA below 4. ONE! (Rolando Arrojo (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5946')) in 1998). Arrojo also won 14 games that year. That's the team record. Once Victor Zambrano (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6752')) won 12. Only twice has a starter topped 200 innings! (Tanyon Sturtze (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5341')) and Arrojo). Basically, the pitching history for this franchise is pathetic, and while Fossum might be a potential breakout performer at some point, it can't happen in Tampa Bay. Sorry, Casey.

Today's Tuesday, Feb. 8. Only 54 days until opening day.

Posted 11:15 a.m. ET, Tuesday, Feb. 8
I'm intrigued by the news that Arizona might stick new addition Jose Cruz Jr. (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5786')) in the leadoff spot. Let's face it, this move would make sense. Diamondbacks are strong in the middle of the lineup, with Luis Gonzalez (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4576')), Troy Glaus (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6063')) and Shawn Green (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5179')). Who's getting on base for them? Well, I would bat Cruz first and Chad Tracy (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7047')) second. I'll explain.

You want your leadoff hitter, most of all, to get on base. And you'd like him to have speed once he's there. Cruz is not a high-average hitter by any means, but he does take walks. In his lone season in the National League, back in 2003 with the Giants, Cruz walked 102 times, had a .366 on-base percentage. Sure, he hit only .250. But if you're leading off, all that matters is getting on base and scoring runs. I move Cruz up my list a bit if I know he leads off. He's got 20-70 power as it is, but he'd score more runs. As a basestealer he's been surprisingly bad the last three years. In 2001 he stole 32 bags (that was his 30-30 season) in 37 tries. Since then, he has 23 steals, 15 caught stealings. Very odd. So figure on maybe 10 steals, but with the bats behind him, he could score 100 runs.

And back to Tracy: He's the new first baseman. He's always hit for average, had gap power. Should have a nice on-base, and if he hits second he'd score runs. Arizona could also play Craig Counsell (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5547')) at second and bat him second, move Tracy down to sixth. Either guy would be more valuable hitting in front of Gonzo. Because of the perception that first basemen should have power, and the strange love teams have for spunky Counsell, I'd bet Arizona will bat Tracy sixth, at best. He looks like a blooming .300 hitter with 40 doubles and 70 walks to me.

Next real-life trade to fall could be the Red Sox sending Byung-Hyun Kim (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6237')) to Colorado. The Rockies don't really have a closer. Anyone who owned Shawn Chacon (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6713')) last year knows that he made the save category torture (35 saves, but a ghastly 7.11 ERA, 1.942 WHIP). He's returned to the rotation now. Chin-Hui Tsao is listed as the Colorado closer, a guy who throws 95 MPH consistently and should be over his shoulder and blister problems. People think that BH Kim stinks. He doesn't. He just didn't have a good year in Boston. In 2003 with Boston his ERA was 3.18, WHIP was 1.109. He strikes out a batter an inning. His Arizona ratios were always right around 1. And other than his nightmare World Series experience, he's been a groundball pitcher who doesn't allow homers. Could Kim conquer Coors? Absolutely.

One more thing: I could care less about this Jose Canseco book. People still ask me about how MLB's newly stringent steroid rules affect fantasy, and I always say the same thing. They mean nothing at this point. Nobody's hitting 70 homers anymore, but the power numbers began to drop two seasons ago. There should be no change for this season. Don't overthink.

Posted 5:42 p.m. ET, Monday, Feb. 7
I get a lot of mail. Let's answer an e-mail here from time to time, but not necessarily "Name a sleeper" or "How will Sammy do now" kind of stuff. Debating is fine. Or adding on to what I'm writing.

This from Ryan in Chicago on my "Don't Forget to Draft Lance Berkman (http://games.espn.go.com/content/flb/2005/story?id=1980668)" column of last week: "Just a general comment after reading your article about Berkman. When you draft a player like Berkman who may miss two months, not only do you get his 30-100 over four or five months, but you get one or two months of a replacement's stats, too. Even a waiver wire replacement will add a few homers and RBI to that total. Nobody ever seems to count that." Excellent point.

Also, and by now you should all know I don't just post puff e-mails, this from someone unnamed in New York: "Eric, you wrote...until Magglio hits the DL again. Dude, seems to me you know nothing. He was one of the most durable players around before last season. Think before you comment." Um, I did think. And I read the doctor's reports. And I saw teams shy away for financial and health reasons. Ordonez was a very durable player. But now his knee is degenerating and he's coming off of TWO major knee surgeries. There is a clause in the contract in case the knee problem is chronic. Teams don't do clauses that for healthy players. Hey, I hope he is healthy and durable. He was a great player. But to me, it's not worth the risk. That's all. Keep on writing.

Also, on my Higginson comment below: "You mentioned in your spin on the Magglio Ordonez (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5889')) signing that you could only name Bobby Higginson (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5321')) as a Temple baseball product. How about Jeff Manto, the veteran journeyman 3B, who hit 19 HRs with Baltimore in 1996?" Thanks to Pete in Trenton, NJ, for that one. Also, former bad relief pitcher and questionable pitching coach Joe Kerrigan went there.

Posted 3:34 p.m. ET, Monday, Feb. 7
Just watched Buster Olney on ESPNEWS, and he agrees Magglio's deal was crazy. There. I feel better now.

Forgot about another repercussion of the Magglio signing; It likely signals the end of daily duty for Temple baseball product Bobby Higginson (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5321')), who would now be the team's fifth outfielder (I point out the Temple thing because I'm from Philly, which is where Temple is, and I can't name any other Temple baseball products...). In case you forgot this version of the AL's best outfield since Hideki-Bernie-Sheffield, the Tigers would be going with Magglio in right, unsuccessful basestealer Alex Sanchez (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6739')) in center (100 steals the last three seasons, but 45 caught!) and reasonably productive Rondell White (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5126')) in left. Craig Monroe (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6773')) hit 18 homers, he's coming off the bench now, until Magglio hits the DL again. Dmitri Young (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5699')) is the DH, with Carlos Pena (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6621')) at first. So Higginson, once a fantasy overachiever and valued player - he had 17-71 and 20 steals in 2001 - should be pushed out the door. At 34 and with back problems, don't look for him to find a home anytime soon. He's too young to make Tampa Bay's rent-an-old-star campaign.

By the way, now that the Rockies did NOT trade Preston Wilson (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5994')) to Arizona, because Tampa dumped Cruz there first, it looks like Mookie's stepson will be stuck in Coors Field for another season. What a shame for those fantasy owners who have him in keeper leagues...

So what does Tampa do now? Owners of Joey Gathright (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7348')) might get really excited, thinking a 50-steal guy just got a job. Well, not really. The Devil Rays also spent the weekend wooing and signing Travis Lee (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5939')), who has enemies in Arizona, Philly and after last season, New York. Lee signed a one-year deal in Gotham, and played in seven games before having surgery for a torn labrum. For those wondering, Lee made a cool $2.25 million for those 19 at-bats. Nice. Anyway, Lee has 20-homer power, and if Tampa gives him 400 at-bats, he can do what Tino Martinez (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4545')) did last season. Which makes him rank about 25th among fantasy first basemen. Aubrey Huff (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6545')) now moves to left field, with Carl Crawford (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6870')) in center and Danny Bautista (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5150')) in right. And at some point, Rocco Baldelli (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7025')) will return from his torn ACL, probably in May. So I don't see how Gathright will be getting an opportunity, unless he shares the DH at-bats with Josh Phelps (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6494')).

Posted 12:56 p.m. ET, Monday, Feb. 7
OK, the football season is officially over, so now we can fully turn our attention to fantasy hock...well, they're still not playing, so let's go with fantasy baseball. In this blog I'll just type what's on my mind, with rants and raves and no rules. Let's go...

Two big fantasy baseball stories coming off the weekend. Sure, Tim Spooneybarger (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6802')) throwing off a mound was critical. We can discuss that later. The biggest move is Magglio Ordonez (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5889')) finally finding a place to play. Very odd situation here. You've got a guy that fantasy owners called a top 10 player not too long ago staying on the market for so long that we became convinced something was still wrong with him. Maybe the Tigers just weren't in on the joke. Or maybe they were and were the only team convinced of his health. Regardless, Magglio played in only 52 games last season, succumbing to a serious knee injury. Not a tear or break. Those can be fixed. He has bone marrow edema. Sounds serious. I looked it up. Happens to old people. A bunch of MLB teams wanted to take a look at Magglio, but he refused a physical. Is it me or is this clearly a sign? Detroit showers him with a five-year deal worth $75 million in February, more than a month after just about every top player found a home (another sign). This contract, potentially for $105 million, is overpaying the same way it would be if you selected Ordonez with the first pick of your draft. Detroit paid well over what any other team was offering. Sure, there are clauses everywhere in this deal in case he's still hurt (plus a signing bonus, lots of backloaded money), but still, they did what Texas did when it got A-Rod: The Tigers gave more than necessary to get him.

From a fantasy standpoint, Magglio used to be a monster. And let's not bury the guy yet, it's only one bad season, and he still was on a 30-100 pace and hitting .292. But from 2001-03 Magglio averaged 34 homers, 115 RBI and hit well over .300. But he stopped running after the 2001 season. That's a big reason why he used to be a first-round fantasy pick, the threat that he'd be Bobby Abreu (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5698')) with more power. At this point, where should you draft him? I don't think he's worth the risk of drafting in the first 10 rounds. What's the best he could do? Figure he still has his stroke, hits near .300 again, but with 25-30 homers tops. And one must assume there will be missed games. While the injury Albert Belle suffered is totally different, this could be that deal all over again. Guy in his prime just has to stop playing due to one of those injuries that happens to people on Social Security, not a major leaguer in his prime. Let someone else take this sizable risk. I can't even say what round I'd draft Ordonez, or if I'd spend more than $15 for him in an auction, but it would be around the time one would select a Cliff Floyd (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5177')) type, an injury risk on the downside, and only if I already had quite a few durable power hitters I didn't have to worry about.

Like that's easy to predict...think Garret Anderson (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5289'))...he never gets hurt, right? Or Richie Sexson (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5931')).

Other big news from the weekend was the big Devil Rays trade, sending well-traveled Jose Cruz Jr. to the Diamondbacks for Casey Fossum (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6772')), and throwing in the cash. Shows how desperate Tampa was to unload him. But don't read much into that. Tampa has loads of outfield depth. And Cruz doesn't fit into the two classes of players this franchise looks for. He's no longer a young guy - like a Carl Crawford (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6870')) or Joey Gathright (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7348')) or Aubrey Huff (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6545')) - and he's about a decade away from being that really old bat Tampa likes to resurrect for a few months, a Fred McGriff (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3579')) or Jose Canseco (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3730')). Last year it was Tino Martinez (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4545')). Great move, signing him while outfield youth can't get at-bats.

Anyway, Cruz is now in Arizona. What does it mean? Cruz was never a top three rounds selection, but he does a 30-30 season on his record. In 2002 drafts, coming off his career zenith of .274-34-88-32 in 2001, he was overrated as a guy you could make a second or third outfielder. That's not Cruz. His career average is .250, he's not durable, and he has nearly as many strikeouts as hits in his career. The Jeromy Burnitz (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5061')) comparisons can begin. In Arizona Cruz will play center field, and he can help you late as a fourth or fifth outfielder. He does walk quite a bit, but has only 23 steals the last three seasons. He's going to be 31 soon. Figure on a .250-20-75-10 season for Arizona.

What are the repercussions to others? Well, the guy he was traded for, Mr. Casey Fossum, was once a big fantasy sleeper. He was one of the keys to the Curt Schilling (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4267')) to Boston trade, a young southpaw with tremendous strikeout rates. And then he had shoulder surgery. Fossum did get healthy quickly, maybe too quickly. He was arguably the worst starter in baseball last year, with a 6.65 ERA, 1.648 WHIP and 4-15 record. You never give up on a lefty - John Halama (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5943')) still finds work - but the track record of pitchers in Tampa Bay is brutal. Avoid Fossum.

Cruz's arrival in Arizona is a shame for Luis Terrero (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7177')), a speedy center fielder whose only real stumbling blocks so far have been his walk rate and his temper. This guy swings at everything at the plate, and many wonder what he'll swing at off the field next. He was suspended last year for throwing a ball into the stands and striking a fan. Another time he got benched for showing up the other team after a home run. Arizona made it clear it wanted someone else to play center, getting Shawn Green (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5179')) and now Cruz for outfield spots to go with Luis Gonzalez (javascript:newWin('/cgi/flb/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4576')). Looks like he'll have to steal those 25-30 bases in the minors.